Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Grizzlies
BKN	This season	MEM
1-5	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	6-0
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 119–108 · win probability MEM 77%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

BKN 1, MEM 8 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

BKN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 48.0% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

MEM offense vs BKN defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, MEM 75.0%

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, MEM 25.3. Allowed: BKN 33.5, MEM 31.4

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, BKN 1-2 away

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, MEM 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: BKN away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs PHI	L97–104WU
Nov 18	vs CHI	W123–115WO
Nov 20	vs ORL	L98–118LO

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ WSH	L112–116LU
Nov 18	@ CLE	L126–142LO
Nov 19	vs GS	W111–108WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

BKN 5–6 MEMMEM leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · BKN 6-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 9, 2025-26	MEM 115 @ BKN 126	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Jan 11, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ MEM 103	MEM -7.5	BKN W
Dec 13, 2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 135	MEM -9.5	MEM W
Nov 4, 2024-25	MEM 104 @ BKN 106	BKN +4.5	BKN W
Oct 30, 2024-25	BKN 119 @ MEM 106	MEM -12.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Grizzlies 3, even 2

NetsBetterGrizzlies

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

Even

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

NetsBetterGrizzlies

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

MEMBig

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MEMBig

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Even

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

MEM5.2 #11

BKN		MEM
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.16 #4
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
35.1 #15	3-point %	41.7 #1
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
22.8 #28	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
9.0 #14	Steals per game	6.3 #28
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Grizzlies