Kaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DET | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-4 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 117–113 · win probability DET 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
DET 5, MIA 1 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigThree-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 43.3% and 41.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
DETBigShooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
DETBigDET offense vs MIA defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
DETSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, MIA 72.3%
MIASmallHome court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: DET 28.1, MIA 23.2
Even
MIA offense vs DET defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: DET 17.1%, MIA 15.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -4.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.9
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 116.5 · MIA 112.5
Win probability
DET 61%
1st half
Spread
DET -2.4
Total
114.7
Projected score
DET 58.5 · MIA 56.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
DET 7–12 MIAMIA leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · DET 14-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026-27 | DET 128 @ MIA 111 | MIA +2.5 | DET W |
| Mar 8, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ MIA 121 | MIA +1.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 1, 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ DET 112 | DET -4.5 | MIA W |
| Nov 29, 2025-26 | DET 138 @ MIA 135 | MIA -3.5 | DET W |
| Mar 19, 2024-25 | DET 116 @ MIA 113 | MIA +4.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Pistons 2, Heat 1, even 2
PistonsBetterHeat
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
=Even
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
←DETBig
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
=Even
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
←DETBig
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
→MIABig
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
PistonsBetterHeat
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
←DETSmall
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
=Even
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
←DETBig
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
→MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
←DETBig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DET109.8 #21MIA118.3 #9Points per possession
DET1.09 #18MIA1.11 #14Pace (possessions)
DET100.9 #29MIA106.2 #5Shooting
Effective FG%
DET53.1 #17MIA54.6 #123-point %
DET36.3 #9MIA34.1 #193-point attempt rate
DET43.3 #13MIA41.7 #20Free throw rate
DET28.9 #14MIA27.3 #19Possessions
Turnover rate
DET15.6 #17MIA14.1 #5Offensive rebound rate
DET27.2 #17MIA24.5 #24Assists per game
DET26.7 #15MIA28.8 #3Defense
Points allowed
DET101.8 #1MIA121.5 #26Points allowed per possession
DET1.01 #1MIA1.15 #26Opponent effective FG%
DET48.8 #2MIA56.8 #27Opponent 3-point %
DET32.5 #10MIA40.6 #29Turnovers forced
DET17.1 #6MIA15.4 #18Defensive rebound rate
DET72.8 #15MIA72.3 #17Steals per game
DET9.0 #12MIA8.3 #19Blocks per game
DET6.7 #4MIA5.0 #13| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 109.8 #21 | Points per game | 118.3 #9 |
| 1.09 #18 | Points per possession | 1.11 #14 |
| 100.9 #29 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #5 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.1 #17 | Effective FG% | 54.6 #12 |
| 36.3 #9 | 3-point % | 34.1 #19 |
| 43.3 #13 | 3-point attempt rate | 41.7 #20 |
| 28.9 #14 | Free throw rate | 27.3 #19 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.6 #17 | Turnover rate | 14.1 #5 |
| 27.2 #17 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.5 #24 |
| 26.7 #15 | Assists per game | 28.8 #3 |
| Defense | ||
| 101.8 #1 | Points allowed | 121.5 #26 |
| 1.01 #1 | Points allowed per possession | 1.15 #26 |
| 48.8 #2 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.8 #27 |
| 32.5 #10 | Opponent 3-point % | 40.6 #29 |
| 17.1 #6 | Turnovers forced | 15.4 #18 |
| 72.8 #15 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.3 #17 |
| 9.0 #12 | Steals per game | 8.3 #19 |
| 6.7 #4 | Blocks per game | 5.0 #13 |
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.