Houston Rockets at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Heat
HOU	This season	MIA
6-1	Record	2-4
6-1	ATS	2-4
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 119–113 · win probability HOU 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, MIA 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 41.7% of their shots

HOUBig

HOU offense vs MIA defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, MIA 72.3%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, HOU 3-1 away

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, MIA 27.3. Allowed: HOU 24.7, MIA 23.2

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, MIA 15.4%

Even

MIA offense vs HOU defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: HOU away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ IND	W118–114LO
Nov 20	@ DEN	L93–129LU
Nov 23	vs LAC	L102–105LU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs MIL	W112–105WU
Nov 22	vs OKC	W122–120WO
Nov 25	@ PHI	W119–109WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 2–8 MIAMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 1-8-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	MIA 122 @ HOU 123	HOU -2.5	MIA W
Feb 28, 2025-26	HOU 105 @ MIA 115	MIA +2.5	MIA W
Mar 21, 2024-25	HOU 102 @ MIA 98	MIA +4.5	MIA W
Dec 29, 2024-25	MIA 104 @ HOU 100	HOU -8.5	MIA W
Apr 5, 2023-24	MIA 119 @ HOU 104	HOU +3.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Heat 0, even 2

RocketsBetterHeat

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

Even

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUSmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUSmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

RocketsBetterHeat

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

Even

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

MIA5.0 #13

HOU		MIA
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.11 #14
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
39.0 #3	3-point %	34.1 #19
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
28.1 #5	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
9.7 #6	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Heat

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Heat

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Heat