Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 5:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LinePHI -4.5no move

Total239.5no move

Season records: Heat and 76ers
MIA	This season	PHI
2-4	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 116–114 · win probability PHI 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

PHI -4.5

no move since the open

Total

239.5

model 230.0 · Under by 9.5

Model edge

MIA by 2

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

MIA 2, PHI 5 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 41.7% and 39.5% of their shots

MIABig

MIA offense vs PHI defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, PHI 17.0%

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

MIASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, PHI 70.8%

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

PHISmall

PHI offense vs MIA defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, PHI 28.7. Allowed: MIA 23.2, PHI 28.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 235 to 239.5	531	68%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ NY	L125–132WO
Nov 29	@ CLE	L128–149LO
Dec 1	vs ATL	W129–117WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ IND	W114–109LU
Nov 28	@ HOU	L102–113LU
Dec 1	vs MEM	W139–129WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

MIA 16–9 PHIMIA leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · MIA 17-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	PHI 109 @ MIA 119	MIA +2.5	MIA W
Feb 26, 2025-26	MIA 117 @ PHI 124	PHI -2.5	PHI W
Nov 23, 2025-26	MIA 127 @ PHI 117	PHI -1.5	MIA W
Apr 7, 2024-25	PHI 105 @ MIA 117	MIA -11.5	MIA W
Mar 29, 2024-25	MIA 118 @ PHI 95	PHI +7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 0, 76ers 3, even 2

HeatBetter76ers

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

PHISmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

Even

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

PHISmall

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

HeatBetter76ers

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIASmall

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

PHI5.0 #14

MIA		PHI
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.06 #22
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
34.1 #19	3-point %	34.0 #20
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
28.8 #3	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
8.3 #19	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

76ers