Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and 76ers
MEM	This season	PHI
6-0	Record	6-1
6-0	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–111 · win probability PHI 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, PHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, PHI 70.8%

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 42.1% and 39.5% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

MEMSmall

PHI offense vs MEM defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, PHI 28.7. Allowed: MEM 31.4, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MEM offense vs PHI defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ DET	L110–126WO
Dec 12	vs MIL	L115–131LO
Dec 14	vs GS	W111–108WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs DEN	L96–124LU
Dec 12	vs ORL	W109–97WU
Dec 14	@ ORL	W109–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 PHISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	MEM 129 @ PHI 139	PHI -4.5	PHI W
Dec 30, 2025-26	PHI 139 @ MEM 136	MEM +1.5	PHI W
Nov 20, 2024-25	PHI 111 @ MEM 117	MEM +4.5	MEM W
Nov 2, 2024-25	MEM 124 @ PHI 107	PHI +1.5	MEM W
Apr 6, 2023-24	PHI 116 @ MEM 96	MEM +15.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, 76ers 1, even 1

GrizzliesBetter76ers

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMSmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

GrizzliesBetter76ers

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMSmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

PHI5.0 #14

MEM		PHI
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.06 #22
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
41.7 #1	3-point %	34.0 #20
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
27.0 #13	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
6.3 #28	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ 76ers

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

76ers

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

76ers