Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and 76ers
DEN	This season	PHI
3-2	Record	6-1
2-3	ATS	4-3
3-2	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–113 · win probability PHI 51%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DEN 2, PHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, PHI 17.0%

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, PHI 28.7. Allowed: DEN 21.5, PHI 28.5

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, PHI 70.8%

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 40.9% and 39.5% of their shots

Even

PHI offense vs DEN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ UTAH	W130–117LU
Dec 15	@ POR	W137–132LO
Dec 17	vs ATL	L87–110LU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs ORL	W109–97WU
Dec 14	@ ORL	W109–97WU
Dec 17	vs DAL	W123–108WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 7–3 PHIDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 5 meetings · DEN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	PHI 96 @ DEN 124	DEN -15.5	DEN W
Jan 5, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHI 124	PHI -14.5	DEN W
Jan 31, 2024-25	DEN 137 @ PHI 134	PHI +9.5	PHI W
Jan 21, 2024-25	PHI 109 @ DEN 144	DEN -11.5	DEN W
Jan 27, 2023-24	PHI 105 @ DEN 111	DEN -12.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nuggets 2, 76ers 2, even 1

NuggetsBetter76ers

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

PHISmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENSmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

NuggetsBetter76ers

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

PHI5.0 #14

DEN		PHI
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.06 #22
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
37.4 #7	3-point %	34.0 #20
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
26.8 #14	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ 76ers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

76ers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

76ers