Nuggets @ Trail Blazers: Odds, Model Line & ATS Trends (Tue, Dec 15, NBA)

Tue, Dec 15, 11:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Trail Blazers
DEN	This season	POR
3-3	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 119–112 · win probability POR 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

DEN 1, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 26.6%, POR 30.5%. Defensive: DEN 68.1%, POR 77.4%

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 11th-hardest schedule, POR the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.4 and allows 54.3; POR 56.0 and allows 51.5

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 33.3, POR 33.6. Allowed: DEN 21.8, POR 30.3

PORSmall

POR offense vs DEN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -0.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +4.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 101.0 a game (24th fastest), POR 102.2 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.0% and allows 35.3%; POR hits 35.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 39.8% and 50.3% of their shots

Even

DEN offense vs POR defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 15.8%, POR 14.9%. Forced: DEN 16.1%, POR 14.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLWWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
POR LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3
POR OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PORlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 17	vs ATL	L87–110LU
Dec 19	vs LAL	L125–127LO
Dec 21	@ LAC	L114–115LO

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 17	@ IND	W127–119LO
Dec 19	@ CHA	L101–103WU
Dec 21	@ BKN	W134–99WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

DEN 15–6 PORDEN leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · DEN 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 2, 2026-27	POR 118 @ DEN 110	DEN -4.5	POR W
Apr 6, 2025-26	POR 132 @ DEN 137	DEN -6.5	POR W
Mar 22, 2025-26	POR 112 @ DEN 128	DEN -8.5	DEN W
Feb 20, 2025-26	DEN 157 @ POR 103	POR +1.5	DEN W
Oct 31, 2025-26	DEN 107 @ POR 109	POR +5.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −7.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247
Nov 2	vsPOR	L 110-118	-4.5	L −12.5	231.5	U 228

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

POR

L 110-118

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

POR

L 110-118

−3.5

over 3under 3avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +7.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202
Nov 2	@DEN	W 118-110	+4.5	W +12.5	231.5	U 228

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

DEN

W 118-110

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

DEN

W 118-110

−3.5

over 2under 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 2, Trail Blazers 1, even 2

NuggetsBetterTrail Blazers

G J. Murray27.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 38

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 4 ast Score 91

G C. Braun15.2 pts · 4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 67

DENSmall

G S. Henderson8.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 36

F A. Gordon11.5 pts · 6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 74

Even

F D. Avdija23.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 5.5 ast Score 86

F C. Johnson8 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast Score 97

DENBig

F T. Camara14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 48

C N. Jokic22 pts · 9.7 reb · 9 ast Score 86

Even

C D. Clingan10 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76

NuggetsBetterTrail Blazers

DEN offense9th of 30 · +2.1

Even

POR defense10th of 30 · +2.2

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

PORSmall

POR offense13th of 30 · +1.8

Backcourt+7.1 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+13.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+36.9 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+18.4 · 3 players

Bench-4.8 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+16.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan25 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson26 minT. Brazile22 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minA. Diallo14 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson22 minJ. Holiday26 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci10 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija32 minT. Camara27 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan24 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

DEN

POR

Scoring

113.3Points per game120.2

1.13Points per possession1.17

101.0Pace (possessions)102.2

Shooting

54.4Effective FG%56.0

37.03-point %35.5

39.83-point attempt rate50.3

33.3Free throw rate33.6

Possessions

15.8Turnover rate14.9

26.6Offensive rebound rate30.5

26.3Assists per game26.8

Defense

115.7Points allowed109.3

1.14Points allowed per possession1.08

54.3Opponent effective FG%51.5

35.3Opponent 3-point %32.4

16.1Turnovers forced14.5

68.1Defensive rebound rate77.4

10.7Steals per game7.7

4.2Blocks per game4.3

DEN		POR
Scoring
113.3 #14	Points per game	120.2 #4
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.17 #4
101.0 #24	Pace (possessions)	102.2 #19
Shooting
54.4 #12	Effective FG%	56.0 #4
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.5 #11
39.8 #23	3-point attempt rate	50.3 #2
33.3 #5	Free throw rate	33.6 #4
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.9 #9
26.6 #17	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #6
26.3 #16	Assists per game	26.8 #13
Defense
115.7 #22	Points allowed	109.3 #11
1.14 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #11
54.3 #19	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #8
35.3 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #9
16.1 #12	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
68.1 #29	Defensive rebound rate	77.4 #3
10.7 #3	Steals per game	7.7 #22
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.3 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers110–118
W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nuggets118–110
W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Trail Blazers

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Trail Blazers