1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. UAPB @ ARK
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 102–61 · win probability ARK 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 162.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

UAPB 0, ARK 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARKBig
ARK offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
UAPB offense vs ARK defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, ARK 69.1%
ARKBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
ARKBig
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 37.1% and 33.0% of their shots
ARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, ARK 15.5%
ARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, ARK 35.9. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, ARK 31.2
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -40.4—
Total—162.9—
Projected score—UAPB 61.3 · ARK 101.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -23.9—
1H total76.1—
1H projected scoreUAPB 26.1 · ARK 50—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Arkansas 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterArkansas
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
ARKBig
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
AR-Pine BluffBetterArkansas
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
ARKBig
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
ARKBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBARK
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game90.2 #2
1.04 #277Points per possession1.23 #3
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%56.4 #16
33.6 #1903-point %38.2 #16
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate33.0 #315
38.4 #91Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate12.2 #1
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
14.1 #136Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed81.0 #333
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
16.4 #192Turnovers forced15.5 #246
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
6.8 #142Steals per game7.3 #96
2.9 #244Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.