1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. UAPB @ BAY
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Baylor Bears

Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#29BAYBaylor
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonBAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 96–61 · win probability BAY 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

UAPB 1, BAY 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BAYBig
BAY offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
BAYBig
UAPB offense vs BAY defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BAYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, BAY 68.7%
BAYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, BAY 34.1. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, BAY 30.1
BAYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
BAYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, BAY 15.9%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
BAYSmall
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
UAPBSmall
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 37.1% and 39.6% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BAY -35.2—
Total—157.0—
Projected score—UAPB 60.9 · BAY 96.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBAY -20.8—
1H total73.3—
1H projected scoreUAPB 26.3 · BAY 47.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Baylor has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Baylor 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterBaylor
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
BAYBig
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
AR-Pine BluffBetterBaylor
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
BAYBig
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
BAYBig
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
BAYBig
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
BAYBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBBAY
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game80.4 #59
1.04 #277Points per possession1.16 #51
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)69.3 #161
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%53.4 #84
33.6 #1903-point %33.9 #179
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate39.6 #181
38.4 #91Free throw rate34.1 #202
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate16.2 #153
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate36.9 #18
14.1 #136Assists per game14.8 #96
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed76.9 #238
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.11 #248
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%52.4 #237
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %34.8 #240
16.4 #192Turnovers forced15.9 #226
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate68.7 #219
6.8 #142Steals per game6.3 #198
2.9 #244Blocks per game3.9 #85
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.