Schollmaier Arena · at TCU · Conference game
Closing line
TCU -2.5✓ TCU covered by 3.5
TCU -2.5✓ TCU covered by 3.5Closing total154.5Under by 22.5
 BAY | This season | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | Record | 10-3 |
| 6-5 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 9-2 | O/U | 5-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BAY 80–79 TCU · ✗ BAY (52%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 23 | 40 | 63 |
| TCU | 29 | 40 | 69 |
1st half: BAY 23, TCU 29 (TCU by 6). The model had BAY by 0.4 and a total of 74.5 (actual 52).
Team stats
| BAY | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-59 37% | Field goals | 23-60 38% |
| 5-21 24% | 3-pointers | 8-20 40% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 34 13 off | Rebounds | 43 19 off |
| 14 | Assists | 16 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 8 | Blocks | 10 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Carr G | 36 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 1-5 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 32 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 31 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Obi Agbim G | 30 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1-8 | 1-4 |
| Michael Rataj G | 22 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Powell C | 18 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| James Nnaji C | 16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: James Goodis, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Will Kuykendall, JJ White
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Harding G | 37 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3-11 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Pierre G | 33 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-10 | 2-5 |
| David Punch F | 30 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-0 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 21 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 19 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 31 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Jace Posey G | 19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Vianney Salatchoum, Drew McElroy, Adam Stewart, Ashton Simmons, RJ Jones, Trey Stuart, Kayden Edwards, Malick Diallo
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTCU -2.5
ModelBAY -0.5
Model edgeBAY +3.0
L TCU covered
Total
Market154.5
Model159.1
Model edgeOver 4.6
L Under
Projected score
BAY 79.8 · TCU 79.3
BAY 63 · TCU 69
Win probability
BAY 52%
1st half
Spread
BAY -0.4
TCU -6.0
Total
74.5
52 points
Projected score
BAY 37.4 · TCU 37
BAY 23 · TCU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTCU -1.5
1 → TCU
CloseTCU -2.5
1 pt toward TCU
Total
Open155.5
▼ 1
Close154.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
BAY +124 · TCU -148
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TCU -1.5 · closed TCU -2.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel BAY -0.5
model BAY -0.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 downmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| TCU | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
BAY 5–3 TCUBAY leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BAY 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | BAY 61 @ TCU 58 | TCU +4.5 | TCU W |
| Jan 19, 2024-25 | TCU 74 @ BAY 71 | BAY -12.5 | TCU W |
| Feb 26, 2023-24 | BAY 62 @ TCU 54 | TCU -2.5 | BAY W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | TCU 105 @ BAY 102 | BAY -3.5 | TCU W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | BAY 72 @ TCU 68 | TCU +2.5 | BAY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Baylor
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-2
82% overs · avg +13 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
over 9under 2avg +13 ptslonger = bigger margin
TCU
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs JKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
over 5under 8avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Baylor
9-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Southern111–67
- Wvs Alcorn St113–56
- Wvs Norfolk St97–67
- L@ Memphis71–78
- Wvs Sacramento St110–88
A week or more of rest.
TCU
10-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jackson St115–64
- Wvs Florida A&M80–56
- Wvs Oral Roberts72–53
- Wvs Incarnate Word69–65
- W@ North Texas65–55
5 days since their last game.