Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
Closing line
TCU -19.5✓ UIW covered by 15.5
TCU -19.5✓ UIW covered by 15.5Closing total143.5Under by 9.5
 UIW | This season | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-3 |
| 3-4 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UIW 64–83 TCU · ✓ TCU (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW | 37 | 28 | 65 |
| TCU | 31 | 38 | 69 |
1st half: UIW 37, TCU 31 (UIW by 6). The model had TCU by 11.6 and a total of 69.0 (actual 68).
Team stats
| UIW | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-57 44% | Field goals | 24-51 47% |
| 10-23 43% | 3-pointers | 3-16 19% |
| 5-9 56% | Free throws | 18-25 72% |
| 29 7 off | Rebounds | 33 9 off |
| 17 | Assists | 11 |
| 4 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 9 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| UIW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj Staveskie G | 38 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-2 |
| Davion Bailey G | 38 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 10-22 | 9-18 |
| Jordan Pyke G | 34 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 4-13 | 0-2 |
| Lewis Rowe C | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Love Bettis G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Esteban Mann F | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Williams C | 16 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Harold Woods G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mihael Tomic, Drew Barbee, Marcus Glover, Harrison Reede, Isaiah Kortas, Tyler Simon, Amani Drummond
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Harding G | 36 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5-11 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Pierre G | 36 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 32 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| David Punch F | 32 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 17 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jace Posey G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Trey Stuart, Ashton Simmons, Adam Stewart, Drew McElroy, Vianney Salatchoum, Kayden Edwards, RJ Jones, Malick Diallo
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTCU -19.5
ModelTCU -19.4
Model edgeUIW +0.1
W UIW covered
Total
Market143.5
Model147.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
L Under
Projected score
UIW 63.9 · TCU 83.4
UIW 65 · TCU 69
Win probability
TCU 96%
1st half
Spread
TCU -11.6
UIW -6.0
Total
69.0
68 points
Projected score
UIW 28.7 · TCU 40.3
UIW 37 · TCU 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTCU -17.5
2 → TCU
CloseTCU -19.5
2 pts toward TCU
Total
Open145.5
▼ 2
Close143.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
UIW +1700 · TCU -4500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TCU -17.5 · closed TCU -19.5 · moved 2 toward TCUmodel TCU -19.5 matches the line
model TCU -19.5 = line ✓
Opened 145.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 downmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIWlast 7 | 2-5 29% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
| TCUlast 9 | 6-3 67% | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Incarnate Word
7 games played
Straight up
2-5
29% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
CSU
CSUL 64-98
−23.5
16
@
IU
IUL 61-69
+20.5
20
vs
USI
USIW 87-81
−3.5
22
vs
HPU
HPUL 80-91
+1.5
1
vs
MCN
MCNW 71-67
+14.5
6
@
NICH
NICHL 67-74
−8.5
8
@
NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
−2.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
+14.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
−27.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
+22.5
22
vsHPU
HPUL 80-91
+10.5
1
vsMCN
MCNW 71-67
−7.5
6
@NICH
NICHL 67-74
−4.5
8
@NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
+18.5
over 4under 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
TCU
9 games played
Straight up
6-3
67% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsNOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
over 4under 5avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Incarnate Word
2-5 overall · 1-2 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ LSU N Orleans83–84
- L@ Nicholls67–74
- Wvs McNeese71–67
- Lvs High Point80–91
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles87–81
A week or more of rest.
TCU
6-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ North Texas65–55
- Lvs Notre Dame85–87
- Wvs Wisconsin74–63
- Wvs Florida84–80
- Wvs Kansas City81–45
A week or more of rest.