Incarnate Word Cardinals at Nicholls Colonels: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETDavid R. Stopher Gymnasium · at Nicholls · Conference game

Final

#285NICHNicholls74▲ winner

Closing lineUIW -1.5✓ NICH covered by 8.5

Closing total145.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Incarnate Word and Nicholls
UIW	This season	NICH
2-3	Record	0-7
3-2	ATS	2-5
3-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UIW 74–75 NICH · ✓ NICH (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UIW	33	34	67
NICH	34	40	74

1st half: UIW 33, NICH 34 (NICH by 1). The model had NICH by 0.2 and a total of 69.7 (actual 67).

Team stats

UIW		NICH
22-58 38%	Field goals	19-43 44%
1-14 7%	3-pointers	9-17 53%
22-30 73%	Free throws	27-38 71%
39 17 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
5	Assists	13
4	Steals	7
1	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	8
24	Fouls	21
36	Points in paint	20
4	Fast-break points	9

Players

UIW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tahj Staveskie G	38	19	3	3	7-17	1-6
Jordan Pyke G	38	21	9	0	7-14	0-1
Harold Woods G	32	4	8	1	1-6	0-0
Davion Bailey G	29	7	2	0	1-8	0-5
Marcus Glover F	20	6	3	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Mihael Tomic G	17	8	6	0	3-4	0-0
Love Bettis G	12	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Harrison Reede G	10	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jayden Williams C	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Amani Drummond G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Drew Barbee, Isaiah Kortas, Esteban Mann, Lewis Rowe, Tyler Simon

NICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trae English G	38	11	4	5	3-9	0-1
Sincere Malone F	33	13	5	2	4-6	2-2
Christian Winborne G	26	8	0	3	2-8	2-6
Jaylen Searles G	23	1	2	0	0-4	0-1
Jalik Dunkley F	22	19	6	0	5-6	1-1
Bench
Nick Krass G	23	6	3	0	1-3	0-1
Zee Hamoda G	14	9	1	3	3-5	3-4
Jalin Rice G	11	5	2	0	1-2	1-1
Zaiden Cross G	10	2	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Domanic Betancourt, Kevin Pazmino, Chaydon Stone, Grant Sanders, Jordan Matthews

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UIW -1.5	NICH -0.5	NICH +2.0	W NICH covered
Total	145.5	148.8	Over 3.3	L Under
Projected score	—	UIW 74.2 · NICH 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NICH -0.2	NICH -1.0
1H total	69.7	67
1H projected score	UIW 34.8 · NICH 34.9	UIW 33 · NICH 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UIW LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	0-1
NICH LLWLL	2-5	29%	—	2-4

Venue/role: UIW away, as favorite; NICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UIW OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
NICH UOOOO	4-3	57%	0-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UIWlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
NICHlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UIW 1–8 NICHNICH leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NICH has won the last 5 meetings · UIW 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2024-25	UIW 70 vs NICH 74	NICH -3.5	NICH W
Jan 13, 2024-25	NICH 88 @ UIW 82	UIW -1.5	NICH W
Feb 26, 2023-24	UIW 82 @ NICH 92	NICH -9.5	NICH W
Jan 22, 2023-24	NICH 78 @ UIW 74	UIW +3.5	NICH W
Feb 18, 2022-23	UIW 74 @ NICH 84	NICH -11.5	UIW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Incarnate Word

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CSU	L 64-98	+10.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 16	@IU	L 61-69	+28.5	W +20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsUSI	W 87-81	-9.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsHPU	L 80-91	+12.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 171
Dec 1	vsMCN	W 71-67	+10.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

−23.5

L 61-69

+20.5

USI

W 87-81

−3.5

HPU

L 80-91

+1.5

MCN

W 71-67

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

+14.5

L 61-69

−27.5

USI

W 87-81

+22.5

HPU

L 80-91

+10.5

MCN

W 71-67

−7.5

over 3under 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nicholls

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 12	@VAL	L 63-68	+2.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 15	@MUR	L 79-99	+14.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 22	@OKST	L 81-95	+23.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 28	@TULN	L 72-82	+8.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	@CREI	L 76-96	+18.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

VAL

L 63-68

−2.5

MUR

L 79-99

−5.5

OKST

L 81-95

+9.5

TULN

L 72-82

−1.5

CREI

L 76-96

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

VAL

L 63-68

−13.5

MUR

L 79-99

+20.5

OKST

L 81-95

+20.5

TULN

L 72-82

+5.5

CREI

L 76-96

+28.5

over 4under 3avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Nicholls Colonels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Incarnate Word

Nicholls

Incarnate Word

Nicholls