Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
Line
SA -15.5no move
SA -15.5no moveTotal229.5no move
 UTAH | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 1-5 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 124–107 · win probability SA 89%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SA -15.5
no move since the open
Total
229.5
model 231.1 · Over by 1.5
Model edge
SA by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
64% SA
69% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
UTAH 0, SA 7 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, SA 13.1%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, SA 15.7%
SABigUTAH offense vs SA defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmallShooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, SA 24.5. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, SA 21.7
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
SASmallThree-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 41.7% and 39.0% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, SA 75.8%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rest
UTAH 2 days since its last game, SA 2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 15 to 19.5 | 140 | 94% | 57% | 57% |
| Conference games at this spread | 109 | 95% | 53% | 54% |
| Games with a total of 225 to 229.5 | 827 | 68% | 50% | 52% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketSA -15.5
ModelSA -17.3
Model edgeSA +1.8
Total
Market229.5
Model231.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
Projected score
UTAH 106.9 · SA 124.2
Win probability
SA 89%
1st half
Spread
SA -9.6
Total
115.7
Projected score
UTAH 53 · SA 62.6
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSA -15.5
no move
NowSA -15.5
No change since the open
Total
Open229.5
no move
Now229.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened SA -15.5 · unchangedmodel SA -17.5
model SA -17.5
Opened 229.5 · unchangedmodel 231
model 231
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
UTAH +15.5SpreadSA -15.5Bets
Money
Over 229.5TotalUnder 229.5
Bets
Money
UTAHWinnerSABets
Money
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAHlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
UTAH 7–11 SASA leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · UTAH 8-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026-27 | SA 117 @ UTAH 111 | UTAH +13.5 | UTAH W |
| Jan 22, 2025-26 | SA 126 @ UTAH 109 | UTAH +12.5 | SA W |
| Jan 19, 2025-26 | UTAH 110 @ SA 123 | SA -16.5 | UTAH W |
| Dec 27, 2025-26 | UTAH 127 @ SA 114 | SA -14.5 | UTAH W |
| Nov 26, 2024-25 | SA 128 @ UTAH 115 | UTAH +1.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jazz
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MEM
MEML 103-123
−18.5
23
vs
NO
NOW 120-119
−0.5
25
vs
LAL
LALL 123-132
−2.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−3.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
+7.5
31
vs
POR
PORL 90-112
−15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MEM
MEML 103-123
−14.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
+0.5
25
vsLAL
LALL 123-132
+17.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−22.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
−4.5
31
vsPOR
PORL 90-112
−30.5
over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Jazz 1, Spurs 4, even 0
JazzBetterSpurs
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 8
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 11
→SABig
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 17
→SABig
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 94
←UTAHSmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 36
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
JazzBetterSpurs
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
→SABig
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
→SASmall
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
JazzGuards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTAH108.7 #24SA117.3 #12Points per possession
UTAH1.05 #25SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
UTAH104.0 #12SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
UTAH51.0 #24SA53.3 #163-point %
UTAH32.6 #23SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
UTAH41.7 #21SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
UTAH31.6 #10SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
UTAH17.0 #25SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
UTAH25.7 #22SA27.2 #16Assists per game
UTAH26.2 #19SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
UTAH118.8 #25SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
UTAH1.14 #25SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
UTAH53.9 #18SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
UTAH37.6 #25SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
UTAH13.3 #28SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
UTAH77.1 #4SA75.8 #7Steals per game
UTAH6.2 #29SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
UTAH6.5 #5SA7.0 #1| UTAH | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #24 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.05 #25 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 104.0 #12 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #24 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 32.6 #23 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 41.7 #21 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 31.6 #10 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #25 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 25.7 #22 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 26.2 #19 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 118.8 #25 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.14 #25 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 53.9 #18 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 37.6 #25 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 13.3 #28 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 77.1 #4 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 6.2 #29 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 6.5 #5 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Jazz
1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
- Lvs Spurs111–117
- Lvs Grizzlies105–110
- Lvs Lakers123–132
- Wvs Pelicans120–119
2 days since their last game.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
2 days since their last game.