Rock Hill Sports & Event Center · Neutral site
#102UABUAB
vs
#127MCNMcNeese
LineMCN -2.5moved 1 toward UAB
Total151.5up 3 from 148.5
Season records: UAB and McNeese
UABThis seasonMCN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UAB 75–75 · win probability UAB 53%
Pick this game
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Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MCN -2.5
moved 1 toward UAB
Total
151.5
model 149.9 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
UAB by 3.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UAB 2, MCN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UABBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAB 36.4, MCN 37.4. Allowed: UAB 28.6, MCN 42.0
Context
Schedule so far
UAB has played the 129th-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UABBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAB 32.5%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: UAB 72.3%, MCN 65.1%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UAB plays 71.2 a game (61st fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points
MCNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAB 12.6%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: UAB 16.1%, MCN 24.4%
MCNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAB 48.4 and allows 50.0; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAB 10%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: UAB 6, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UAB offense vs MCN defense
Offense 82nd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UAB hits 27.8% and allows 32.6%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 30.5% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
MCN offense vs UAB defense
Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 141st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Neutral-site favorites of under 357653%48%48%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward UAB
Total
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UAB +146 · MCN -178
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MCN -3.5 · now MCN -4 · moved 0.5 toward MCNmodel UAB -1
Opened 148.5 · now 150.5 · moved 2 upmodel 150
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
UABWinnerMCN
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UABMCNOverUnderUABMCN
BetMGMMGM-3.5-105+3.5-115151.5-105151.5-115+150-185
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-4-110+4-110150.5-115150.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-3.5-115+3.5-108150.5-114150.5-109+140-177
BovadaBovada-4-110+4-110150.5-115150.5-105+145-170
DraftKingsDK-3.5-110+3.5-110151.5-105151.5-115+150-180
FanDuelFD-4.5-120+4.5-102151.5-110151.5-110+146-178
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-4-106+4-106150.5-113150.5-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMCN -2.5UAB -0.9UAB +3.5
Total151.5149.9Under 1.6
Projected score—UAB 75.4 · MCN 74.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadUAB -0.7—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreUAB 35.4 · MCN 34.7—

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UAB 2, McNeese 2, even 1
UABBetterMcNeese
G J. Fernandez TR16.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 56
MCNBig
G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
G J. Elyzee TR11.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 61
UABSmall
G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38
G D. Jones TR16.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.4 ast Score 91
No call
G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G E. Duval TR15.6 pts · 4 reb · 3.5 ast Score 74
UABBig
F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29
G T. Caldwell TR9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 56
MCNSmall
F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71
UABBetterMcNeese
UAB offense82nd of 366 · +0.4
Even
MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6
UAB defense141st of 366 · -3.1
Even
MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt+2.8 · 5 players
Even
Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 2 players
MCNSmall
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUAB betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAB
Guards
J. Fernandez37 min · TRJ. Elyzee30 min · TRD. Jones29 min · TRE. Duval27 min · TRT. Caldwell20 min · TRS. London20 min
Forwards
A. Alston8 min · TRA. Sandlin-ElNew
Centers
M. MboleNewK. DavisNew
McNeese
Guards
L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR
Forwards
J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UABMCN
Scoring
78.2 #92Points per game76.6 #131
1.10 #141Points per possession1.14 #69
71.2 #61Pace (possessions)67.1 #276
Shooting
48.4 #305Effective FG%50.7 #202
27.8 #3643-point %31.7 #290
30.5 #3503-point attempt rate35.2 #269
36.4 #141Free throw rate37.4 #114
Possessions
12.6 #2Turnover rate14.2 #28
32.5 #104Offensive rebound rate35.1 #46
14.2 #135Assists per game13.1 #205
Defense
74.3 #168Points allowed67.4 #23
1.04 #79Points allowed per possession1.00 #27
50.0 #98Opponent effective FG%49.3 #76
32.6 #95Opponent 3-point %32.7 #102
16.1 #217Turnovers forced24.4 #1
72.3 #53Defensive rebound rate65.1 #338
7.5 #74Steals per game10.3 #1
3.5 #139Blocks per game4.4 #42

UAB

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Charlotte78–83
  • Wvs East Carolina90–83
  • W@ Charlotte80–74
  • Lvs North Texas58–62
  • W@ Memphis78–67

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
  • Wvs SF Austin76–59
  • Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
  • W@ Nicholls75–65
  • W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.