McNeese Cowboys at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: McNeese and North Texas
MCN	This season	UNT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 71–69 · win probability UNT 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

MCN 3, UNT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

MCN has played the 258th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNTSmall

MCN offense vs UNT defense

Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings

MCNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MCN 14.2%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: MCN 24.4%, UNT 21.3%

MCNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5

UNTSmall

Home court

UNT at home. This season: UNT 0-0 at home, MCN 0-0 away

MCNSmall

UNT offense vs MCN defense

Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MCN 33%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: MCN 5, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: MCN plays 67.1 a game (276th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MCN 35.1%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: MCN 65.1%, UNT 67.6%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MCN 37.4, UNT 39.6. Allowed: MCN 42.0, UNT 45.1

Even

Three-pointers

MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 35.2% and 32.4% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNT -3.0	—
Total	—	139.9	—
Projected score	—	MCN 68.5 · UNT 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -1.6	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	MCN 31.9 · UNT 33.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MCN LWLWW	16-16	50%	4-10	—
UNT LWLWW	17-14	55%	6-9	—

Venue/role: MCN away; UNT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MCN UUOOU	15-17	47%	26-6
UNT OUUOO	14-17	45%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MCN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

McNeese

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ TXST	W59–48WU
Nov 28	@ UL	W88–62WO
Dec 5	vs HCU	W73–69LO

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs SCU	L60–63WU
Nov 14	vs USA	W58–57WU
Nov 20	@ APP	W68–64LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MCN 1–0 UNTMCN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MCN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2024-25	UNT 61 @ MCN 68	MCN -4.5	MCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

McNeese

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L W W W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L W L W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U U U O U O O O O U U O O U U O U U U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsMTSU	W 72-62	-9.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	@UIW	L 67-71	-10.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Dec 5	vsNWST	W 92-54	-19.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 9	@URI	W 66-64	-1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 12	vsETAM	W 102-66	-20.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 168
Dec 15	@HCU	W 78-68	-14.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 29	@MICH	L 71-112	+24.5	L −16.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 2	vsLAM	W 82-70	-16.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 5	vsSFA	W 66-64	-10.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsSELA	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNICH	W 94-68	-15.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	@RGV	L 76-79	-9.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	@AMCC	W 69-53	-9.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 122
Jan 24	vsNOLA	W 82-63	-18.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@SELA	W 76-66	-12.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@LAM	W 64-63	-10.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 2	@SFA	L 60-67	-2.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsUIW	W 81-64	-16.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 9	vsHCU	W 73-69	-21.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	@ETAM	W 97-54	-13.5	W +29.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 16	@NWST	W 75-64	-14.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsAMCC	W 70-54	-14.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsRGV	W 75-68	-11.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	@NOLA	W 66-63	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	@NICH	W 75-65	-9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsRGV	W 84-80	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsSFA	W 76-59	-3.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 19	vsVAN	L 68-78	+12.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

MTSU

W 72-62

+0.5

UIW

L 67-71

−14.5

NWST

W 92-54

+18.5

URI

W 66-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+15.5

HCU

W 78-68

−4.5

MICH

L 71-112

−16.5

LAM

W 82-70

−4.5

SFA

W 66-64

−8.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+10.5

RGV

L 76-79

−12.5

AMCC

W 69-53

+6.5

NOLA

W 82-63

+0.5

SELA

W 76-66

−2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−9.5

SFA

L 60-67

−9.5

UIW

W 81-64

+0.5

HCU

W 73-69

−17.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+29.5

NWST

W 75-64

−3.5

AMCC

W 70-54

+1.5

RGV

W 75-68

−4.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−7.5

NICH

W 75-65

+0.5

RGV

W 84-80

−4.5

SFA

W 76-59

+13.5

VAN

L 68-78

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

MTSU

W 72-62

−13.5

UIW

L 67-71

−7.5

NWST

W 92-54

+6.5

URI

W 66-64

−16.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+25.5

HCU

W 78-68

+8.5

MICH

L 71-112

+21.5

LAM

W 82-70

+6.5

SFA

W 66-64

−14.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+15.5

RGV

L 76-79

+8.5

AMCC

W 69-53

−18.5

NOLA

W 82-63

−11.5

SELA

W 76-66

+2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−17.5

SFA

L 60-67

−14.5

UIW

W 81-64

−0.5

HCU

W 73-69

+4.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+8.5

NWST

W 75-64

+0.5

AMCC

W 70-54

−15.5

RGV

W 75-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−21.5

NICH

W 75-65

−5.5

RGV

W 84-80

+23.5

SFA

W 76-59

+0.5

VAN

L 68-78

−2.5

over 15under 17avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L L W W W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U O U O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 11	@WICH	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 18	@TULN	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	vsUTSA	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 23	vsECU	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	@TLSA	L 66-82	+8.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 148
Jan 31	vsUAB	L 68-72	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 4	@RICE	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 169
Feb 7	@UTSA	W 81-58	-10.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsMEM	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 15	@TEM	W 65-62	+2.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsTULN	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsFAU	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Feb 25	@CLT	L 79-80	-2.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 159
Mar 1	@UAB	W 62-58	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 120
Mar 4	vsRICE	W 62-58	-6.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 120
Mar 12	vsFAU	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 144
Mar 13	vsTLSA	L 84-90	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

WICH

L 67-78

−2.5

TULN

W 71-63

+9.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+3.5

ECU

L 59-63

−14.5

TLSA

L 66-82

−7.5

UAB

L 68-72

−5.5

RICE

L 83-86

−4.5

UTSA

W 81-58

+12.5

MEM

W 76-69

+9.5

TEM

W 65-62

+5.5

TULN

L 71-77

−12.5

FAU

W 73-72

−1.5

CLT

L 79-80

−3.5

UAB

W 62-58

+8.5

RICE

W 62-58

−2.5

FAU

W 74-70

+2.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

WICH

L 67-78

+9.5

TULN

W 71-63

−3.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+4.5

ECU

L 59-63

−12.5

TLSA

L 66-82

+6.5

UAB

L 68-72

−1.5

RICE

L 83-86

+34.5

UTSA

W 81-58

−2.5

MEM

W 76-69

+6.5

TEM

W 65-62

−8.5

TULN

L 71-77

+10.5

FAU

W 73-72

+4.5

CLT

L 79-80

+25.5

UAB

W 62-58

−22.5

RICE

W 62-58

−17.5

FAU

W 74-70

+7.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+32.5

over 14under 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: McNeese 0, North Texas 2, even 3

McNeeseBetterNorth Texas

G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98

Even

G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94

G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

UNTSmall

G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53

G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29

UNTBig

G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74

F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71

Even

F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65

McNeeseBetterNorth Texas

MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7

UNTSmall

UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0

MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6

Even

UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0

Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

UNTSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMCN betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

McNeese

Guards

L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR

Forwards

J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew

North Texas

Guards

J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew

Forwards

R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MCN76.6 #131

UNT69.1 #298

Points per possession

MCN1.14 #69

UNT1.02 #302

Pace (possessions)

MCN67.1 #276

UNT67.6 #245

Shooting

Effective FG%

MCN50.7 #202

UNT46.0 #349

3-point %

MCN31.7 #290

UNT28.7 #358

3-point attempt rate

MCN35.2 #269

UNT32.4 #325

Free throw rate

MCN37.4 #114

UNT39.6 #63

Possessions

Turnover rate

MCN14.2 #28

UNT16.8 #182

Offensive rebound rate

MCN35.1 #46

UNT33.5 #76

Assists per game

MCN13.1 #205

UNT12.1 #282

Defense

Points allowed

MCN67.4 #23

UNT68.2 #35

Points allowed per possession

MCN1.00 #27

UNT1.01 #33

Opponent effective FG%

MCN49.3 #76

UNT48.5 #47

Opponent 3-point %

MCN32.7 #102

UNT30.9 #32

Turnovers forced

MCN24.4 #1

UNT21.3 #6

Defensive rebound rate

MCN65.1 #338

UNT67.6 #278

Steals per game

MCN10.3 #1

UNT8.9 #11

Blocks per game

MCN4.4 #42

UNT4.3 #51

MCN		UNT
Scoring
76.6 #131	Points per game	69.1 #298
1.14 #69	Points per possession	1.02 #302
67.1 #276	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #245
Shooting
50.7 #202	Effective FG%	46.0 #349
31.7 #290	3-point %	28.7 #358
35.2 #269	3-point attempt rate	32.4 #325
37.4 #114	Free throw rate	39.6 #63
Possessions
14.2 #28	Turnover rate	16.8 #182
35.1 #46	Offensive rebound rate	33.5 #76
13.1 #205	Assists per game	12.1 #282
Defense
67.4 #23	Points allowed	68.2 #35
1.00 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #33
49.3 #76	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #47
32.7 #102	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #32
24.4 #1	Turnovers forced	21.3 #6
65.1 #338	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #278
10.3 #1	Steals per game	8.9 #11
4.4 #42	Blocks per game	4.3 #51

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
Wvs SF Austin76–59
Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
W@ Nicholls75–65
W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa84–90
Wvs FAU74–70
Wvs Rice62–58
W@ UAB62–58
L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

McNeese Cowboys at North Texas Mean Green

What could decide it: MCN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

McNeese

North Texas

North Texas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

McNeese

North Texas