North Texas Mean Green at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 18, 5:00 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane · Conference game

#112UNTNorth Texas71▲ winner

Final

#130TULNTulane63final

Closing lineTULN -1.5✓ UNT covered by 9.5

Closing total137.5Under by 3.5

Season records: North Texas and Tulane
UNT	This season	TULN
8-7	Record	11-5
9-6	ATS	7-9
5-10	O/U	7-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNT 66–67 TULN · ✗ TULN (53%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNT	35	36	71
TULN	30	33	63

1st half: UNT 35, TULN 30 (UNT by 5). The model had TULN by 0.4 and a total of 62.5 (actual 65).

Team stats

UNT		TULN
21-57 37%	Field goals	15-48 31%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	8-24 33%
22-27 81%	Free throws	25-33 76%
47 17 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
13	Assists	11
6	Steals	8
3	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	11
22	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	14
8	Fast-break points	12

Players

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Terrell Jr. G	39	19	6	7	6-12	2-2
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	30	15	3	1	4-16	2-10
Dylan Arnett F	29	6	7	1	2-8	0-0
Cole Franklin G	27	2	7	2	0-6	0-2
Reece Robinson F	21	13	9	0	5-5	0-0
Bench
Demarion Watson G	21	5	5	1	1-1	1-1
Cahmai Crosby G	18	7	2	1	2-7	2-7
Josiah Shackleford F	9	4	5	0	1-2	0-0
Buddy Hammer Jr. F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: EJ Horton, Will McClendon

TULN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Curtis Williams Jr. G	37	15	2	3	5-9	5-8
Rowan Brumbaugh G	37	22	7	2	6-15	2-4
Asher Woods G	26	8	2	2	1-5	0-3
Tyler Ringgold F	24	7	4	0	0-4	0-1
Scotty Middleton F	24	2	2	1	1-5	0-3
Bench
KJ Greene G	19	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Josiah Moore G	18	1	4	2	0-7	0-3
Percy Daniels C	15	5	3	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Robert Moore, Vasilije Kuridza, Joseph Teich, Luke Rasmussen, Luke Cronin, Jake Shapiro, Davion Bradford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TULN -1.5	TULN -0.8	UNT +0.7	W UNT covered
Total	137.5	133.4	Under 4.1	W Under
Projected score	—	UNT 66.3 · TULN 67.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -0.4	UNT -5.0
1H total	62.5	65
1H projected score	UNT 31.1 · TULN 31.5	UNT 35 · TULN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWWL	9-6	60%	3-2	7-3
TULN LWWWL	7-9	44%	4-6	5-5

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UUOUO	5-10	33%	8-7
TULN UOUUU	7-9	44%	11-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TULN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNT 4–0 TULNUNT leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UNT has won the last 4 meetings · UNT 4-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	TULN 66 @ UNT 76	UNT -9.5	UNT W
Mar 14, 2023-24	TULN 71 vs UNT 81	UNT -5.5	UNT W
Feb 28, 2023-24	UNT 80 @ TULN 76	TULN +2.5	UNT W
Jan 6, 2023-24	TULN 56 @ UNT 70	UNT -1.5	UNT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Texas

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1033%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 11	@WICH	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

WICH

L 67-78

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

WICH

L 67-78

+9.5

over 5under 10avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

16 games played

Straight up

11-5

69% wins

Against the spread

7-9

44% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-9

44% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-569%

W W W L L W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-944%

W L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-944%

O O U U O O O U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 6	vsAKR	L 71-88	+6.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsUCSD	L 67-93	+5.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLT	W 61-53	-4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 20	vsPRST	W 63-61	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 31	@ECU	W 79-70	-1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 4	vsFAU	W 69-66	+3.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 10	@UTSA	W 85-52	-7.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsUAB	L 69-82	+1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

AKR

L 71-88

−10.5

UCSD

L 67-93

−20.5

W 61-53

+3.5

PRST

W 63-61

−0.5

ECU

W 79-70

+7.5

FAU

W 69-66

+6.5

UTSA

W 85-52

+25.5

UAB

L 69-82

−11.5

covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

AKR

L 71-88

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-93

+10.5

W 61-53

−26.5

PRST

W 63-61

−21.5

ECU

W 79-70

+3.5

FAU

W 69-66

−23.5

UTSA

W 85-52

−10.5

UAB

L 69-82

−2.5

over 7under 9avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas Mean Green at Tulane Green Wave

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Texas

Tulane

North Texas

Tulane