Akron Zips at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane

#118AKRAkron88▲ winner

Final

#130TULNTulane71final

Closing lineAKR -6.5✓ AKR covered by 10.5

Closing total162.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Akron and Tulane
AKR	This season	TULN
6-2	Record	6-2
6-2	ATS	3-5
6-2	O/U	5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AKR 87–80 TULN · ✓ AKR (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AKR	42	46	88
TULN	34	37	71

1st half: AKR 42, TULN 34 (AKR by 8). The model had AKR by 4.7 and a total of 78.1 (actual 76).

Team stats

AKR		TULN
31-62 50%	Field goals	24-62 39%
13-31 42%	3-pointers	7-33 21%
13-17 76%	Free throws	16-22 73%
46 14 off	Rebounds	28 9 off
17	Assists	13
4	Steals	10
3	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	8
17	Fouls	13
32	Points in paint	28
5	Fast-break points	14

Players

AKR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Evan Mahaffey F	35	7	5	4	3-8	0-2
Tavari Johnson G	34	18	2	5	7-11	4-7
Shammah Scott G	32	20	4	1	6-10	5-8
Eric Mahaffey G	31	10	11	4	5-9	0-2
Amani Lyles F	20	14	8	2	5-9	2-2
Bench
Bowen Hardman G	17	7	2	0	1-7	1-7
Sharron Young G	14	3	2	0	1-4	1-3
Chabi Barre F	8	7	4	0	2-2	0-0
Marvin Musiime-Kamali F	8	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
Zach Halligan F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ognjen Stankovic, Josh Henderson, Tai Perkins, Conner Groce, Rich Brisco, Cody Head

TULN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Curtis Williams Jr. G	37	11	2	5	4-13	3-10
Rowan Brumbaugh G	35	16	5	4	5-13	2-7
Asher Woods G	34	14	1	1	3-11	0-5
Tyler Ringgold F	29	10	8	0	4-9	1-4
Scotty Middleton F	20	5	0	1	2-4	1-3
Bench
Josiah Moore G	24	13	6	0	5-6	0-1
Percy Daniels C	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
KJ Greene G	10	0	0	2	0-5	0-3

Did not play: Robert Moore, Vasilije Kuridza, Joseph Teich, Luke Rasmussen, Luke Cronin, Jake Shapiro, Davion Bradford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AKR -6.5	AKR -7.5	AKR +1.0	W AKR covered
Total	162.5	167.0	Over 4.5	L Under
Projected score	—	AKR 87.3 · TULN 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AKR -4.7	AKR -8.0
1H total	78.1	76
1H projected score	AKR 41.4 · TULN 36.7	AKR 42 · TULN 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WWLWL	6-2	75%	1-0	5-2
TULN LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-3	1-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as favorite; TULN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UUOOO	6-2	75%	6-2
TULN UOOOU	5-3	63%	6-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 8	6-2 75%	6-2 75%	6-2 75%
TULNlast 8	6-2 75%	3-5 38%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Akron

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +8.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-2

75% overs · avg +12.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-275%

O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJMU	W 85-71	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsPRIN	W 104-69	-13.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 16	@PUR	L 79-97	+18.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsIONA	W 96-75	-11.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 23	vsEVAN	W 97-59	-11.5	W +26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsYALE	L 94-97	-1.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 191
Nov 29	vsMILW	W 105-81	-12.5	W +11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 3	vsBUCK	W 97-77	-23.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+5.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+21.5

PUR

L 79-97

+0.5

IONA

W 96-75

+9.5

EVAN

W 97-59

+26.5

YALE

L 94-97

−4.5

MILW

W 105-81

+11.5

BUCK

W 97-77

−3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+2.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+16.5

PUR

L 79-97

+12.5

IONA

W 96-75

−2.5

EVAN

W 97-59

−0.5

YALE

L 94-97

+34.5

MILW

W 105-81

+19.5

BUCK

W 97-77

+16.5

over 6under 2avg +12.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-538%

W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-363%

O O U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

over 5under 3avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Akron Zips at Tulane Green Wave

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Akron

Tulane

Akron

Tulane