South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 8:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas · Conference game

Final

Closing lineUSF -4.5✓ UNT covered by 0.5

Closing total147.5Under by 3.5

Season records: South Florida and North Texas
USF	This season	UNT
7-6	Record	8-5
6-7	ATS	8-5
8-5	O/U	4-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USF 76–72 UNT · ✓ USF (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USF	25	49	74
UNT	30	40	70

1st half: USF 25, UNT 30 (UNT by 5). The model had USF by 3.0 and a total of 69.4 (actual 55).

Team stats

USF		UNT
21-47 45%	Field goals	27-59 46%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
27-36 75%	Free throws	9-20 45%
39 13 off	Rebounds	33 13 off
13	Assists	12
8	Steals	10
2	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	13
19	Fouls	23
30	Points in paint	40
10	Fast-break points	13

Players

USF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Omojafo G	32	11	6	2	1-6	0-1
Izaiyah Nelson F	32	17	10	1	6-8	0-0
Joseph Pinion G	30	14	1	2	6-10	2-6
Wes Enis G	28	3	3	2	1-6	1-5
CJ Brown G	25	11	4	3	2-7	1-2
Bench
Isaiah Jones F	19	5	3	0	1-2	1-2
Adriel Nyorha G	13	4	1	3	1-4	0-2
Daimion Collins F	11	9	3	0	3-3	0-0
Tristan Beckford G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Gavin Hightower G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Caleb Sanders, Onyx Nnani, Devin Haid, Xavier Brown, De'Ante Green

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cole Franklin G	33	3	5	1	1-4	1-2
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	33	21	4	2	8-16	4-7
David Terrell Jr. G	32	17	5	5	8-14	0-1
Dylan Arnett F	31	12	5	1	4-7	0-0
Reece Robinson F	17	6	5	1	3-8	0-2
Bench
Buddy Hammer Jr. F	19	2	5	0	0-1	0-1
Josiah Shackleford F	9	3	0	0	1-4	0-0
Demarion Watson G	9	3	1	1	1-2	1-1
Cahmai Crosby G	9	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	8	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: EJ Horton, Will McClendon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USF -4.5	USF -4.8	USF +0.3	L UNT covered
Total	147.5	148.1	Over 0.6	L Under
Projected score	—	USF 76.4 · UNT 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USF -3.0	UNT -5.0
1H total	69.4	55
1H projected score	USF 36.2 · UNT 33.2	USF 25 · UNT 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WLWWL	6-7	46%	2-1	5-5
UNT LWWWW	8-5	62%	3-4	6-2

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UUOOO	8-5	62%	7-6
UNT UUUUO	4-9	31%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UNT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USF 1–1 UNTSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · USF 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 23, 2024-25	UNT 64 @ USF 57	USF +4.5	UNT W
Feb 3, 2023-24	USF 60 @ UNT 55	UNT -6.5	USF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Florida

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

W L W W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

W L W W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-562%

O O U O O U O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsCOPP	W 100-50	-34.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 16	@KENN	W 108-89	-7.5	W +11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 19	@OKST	L 95-103	+3.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 26	vsVCU	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsWKU	W 97-91	-7.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsCSU	L 68-83	-2.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 4	vsUSU	W 74-61	-2.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 10	vsCOFC	W 81-75	-13.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 17	@ALA	L 93-104	+14.5	W +3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsUMBC	W 94-69	-22.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUAB	L 106-109	-8.5	L −11.5	163.5	O 215

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

COPP

W 100-50

+15.5

KENN

W 108-89

+11.5

OKST

L 95-103

−4.5

VCU

L 66-78

−10.5

WKU

W 97-91

−1.5

CSU

L 68-83

−17.5

USU

W 74-61

+10.5

COFC

W 81-75

−7.5

ALA

L 93-104

+3.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

−11.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

COPP

W 100-50

−17.5

KENN

W 108-89

+19.5

OKST

L 95-103

+20.5

VCU

L 66-78

−28.5

WKU

W 97-91

+20.5

CSU

L 68-83

−4.5

USU

W 74-61

−27.5

COFC

W 81-75

−4.5

ALA

L 93-104

+18.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

+51.5

over 8under 5avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-562%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

over 4under 9avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Florida

North Texas

South Florida

North Texas