Murray State Racers at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 8:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville · Conference game

#132MURMurray St79▲ winner

Final

#255EVANEvansville69final

Closing lineMUR -8.5✓ MUR covered by 1.5

Closing total153.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Murray St and Evansville
MUR	This season	EVAN
13-3	Record	2-12
10-6	ATS	6-8
9-7	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MUR 80–72 EVAN · ✓ MUR (76%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MUR	42	37	79
EVAN	30	39	69

1st half: MUR 42, EVAN 30 (MUR by 12). The model had MUR by 5.0 and a total of 71.4 (actual 72).

Team stats

MUR		EVAN
27-59 46%	Field goals	27-53 51%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	1-12 8%
18-27 67%	Free throws	14-19 74%
36 10 off	Rebounds	32 5 off
13	Assists	15
4	Steals	5
2	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	15
20	Fouls	19
40	Points in paint	50
12	Fast-break points	8

Players

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Layne Taylor G	30	3	2	3	1-5	1-4
Fredrick King C	30	9	7	1	4-5	0-0
Javon Jackson G	26	22	3	2	8-16	1-4
Mason Miller F	24	2	3	1	0-3	0-2
JJ Traynor F	17	12	3	0	5-8	2-4
Bench
Roman Domon G	25	19	11	2	6-10	3-5
Mathis Courbon G	16	10	3	1	2-6	0-2
Brayden Shorter G	13	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
KJ Tenner G	10	2	0	2	1-3	0-1
Dylan Anderson F	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Brock Vice F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Dillon Butler, Lachlan Crate, Tristian Ford, Ben Shtolzberg

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryce Quinet G	34	13	5	4	5-11	0-1
AJ Casey F	31	24	5	1	10-13	1-2
Alex Hemenway G	27	2	0	1	1-3	0-2
Leif Moeller G	26	6	3	5	2-8	0-3
Joshua Hughes F	24	14	4	0	5-9	0-1
Bench
Trent Hundley F	24	4	3	0	1-5	0-3
Kaia Berridge G	21	2	1	3	1-1	0-0
James Dyson-Merwe F	13	4	6	1	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Keishon Porter, Aaron Gutman, Marlon Barnes Jr., Connor Turnbull, Weston Aigner, Dakota Candler, Leo Amari IV

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MUR -8.5	MUR -8.1	EVAN +0.4	L MUR covered
Total	153.5	152.5	Under 1.0	W Under
Projected score	—	MUR 80.3 · EVAN 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MUR -5.0	MUR -12.0
1H total	71.4	72
1H projected score	MUR 38.2 · EVAN 33.2	MUR 42 · EVAN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MUR WWLLW	10-6	63%	1-2	8-4
EVAN WLWLL	6-8	43%	2-4	5-5

Venue/role: MUR away, as favorite; EVAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MUR UOUUU	9-7	56%	13-3
EVAN OUUUU	6-8	43%	2-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MUR	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
EVAN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

MUR 6–1 EVANMUR leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MUR 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2024-25	EVAN 53 vs MUR 74	MUR -5.5	MUR W
Jan 29, 2024-25	MUR 74 @ EVAN 78	EVAN +5.5	EVAN W
Dec 3, 2024-25	EVAN 61 @ MUR 63	MUR -13.5	EVAN W
Feb 10, 2023-24	EVAN 70 @ MUR 73	MUR -7.5	EVAN W
Jan 6, 2023-24	MUR 81 @ EVAN 59	EVAN -1.5	MUR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Murray St

16 games played

Straight up

13-3

81% wins

Against the spread

10-6

63% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-7

56% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-381%

W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-663%

W W L W W L L W W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-756%

O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 23	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-6.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsMCN	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsGW	W 96-95	+7.5	W +8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	vsMORE	W 84-52	-16.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 136
Dec 6	vsBELL	W 81-68	-16.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsAKR	W 115-100	+4.5	W +19.5	168.5	O 215
Dec 18	vsDRKE	W 81-72	-7.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@VAL	W 85-79	-5.5	W +0.5	155.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsSIU	W 84-81	-6.5	L −3.5	165.5	U 165
Jan 1	@UIC	W 81-77	-5.5	L −1.5	159.5	U 158
Jan 4	vsBRAD	W 86-66	-5.5	W +14.5	162.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−9.5

MCN

L 60-73

−10.5

W 96-95

+8.5

W 84-52

+15.5

BELL

W 81-68

−3.5

AKR

W 115-100

+19.5

DRKE

W 81-72

+1.5

VAL

W 85-79

+0.5

SIU

W 84-81

−3.5

UIC

W 81-77

−1.5

BRAD

W 86-66

+14.5

covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+15.5

MCN

L 60-73

−25.5

W 96-95

+23.5

W 84-52

−22.5

BELL

W 81-68

−8.5

AKR

W 115-100

+46.5

DRKE

W 81-72

−3.5

VAL

W 85-79

+8.5

SIU

W 84-81

−0.5

UIC

W 81-77

−1.5

BRAD

W 86-66

−10.5

over 9under 7avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

14 games played

Straight up

2-12

14% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1214%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

over 6under 8avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Murray State Racers at Evansville Purple Aces

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Murray St

Evansville

Murray St

Evansville