Athletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso · Conference game
Closing line
MUR -5.5✓ MUR covered by 0.5
MUR -5.5✓ MUR covered by 0.5Closing total155.5Over by 8.5
| MUR | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | Record | 5-5 |
| 8-4 | ATS | 6-4 |
| 8-4 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MUR 81–76 VAL · ✓ MUR (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 36 | 49 | 85 |
| VAL | 39 | 40 | 79 |
1st half: MUR 36, VAL 39 (VAL by 3). The model had MUR by 3.1 and a total of 73.2 (actual 75).
Team stats
| MUR | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-57 49% | Field goals | 31-65 48% |
| 6-18 33% | 3-pointers | 7-18 39% |
| 23-28 82% | Free throws | 10-15 67% |
| 36 10 off | Rebounds | 34 11 off |
| 12 | Assists | 14 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrick King C | 31 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-0 |
| Mason Miller F | 24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Layne Taylor G | 21 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| JJ Traynor F | 19 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Javon Jackson G | 17 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roman Domon G | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Mathis Courbon G | 23 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| KJ Tenner G | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Brayden Shorter G | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Dylan Anderson F | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brock Vice F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ben Shtolzberg, Dillon Butler, Lachlan Crate, Tristian Ford
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney G | 33 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0-7 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Owen Dease F | 28 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 10-13 | 3-4 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Justus McNair G | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sader Servilus, Kobe Walker, Mark Brown Jr., Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMUR -5.5
ModelMUR -5.0
Model edgeVAL +0.5
L MUR covered
Total
Market155.5
Model156.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
W Over
Projected score
MUR 80.7 · VAL 75.7
MUR 85 · VAL 79
Win probability
MUR 67%
1st half
Spread
MUR -3.1
VAL -3.0
Total
73.2
75 points
Projected score
MUR 38.2 · VAL 35
MUR 36 · VAL 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMUR -5.5
no move
CloseMUR -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
no move
Close155.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MUR -250 · VAL +205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MUR -5.5 · unchangedmodel MUR -5
model MUR -5
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| VAL | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MUR 6–0 VALMUR leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · MUR has won the last 6 meetings · MUR 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | MUR 74 @ VAL 56 | VAL +1.5 | MUR W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | VAL 47 @ MUR 58 | MUR -7.5 | MUR W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | VAL 68 @ MUR 80 | MUR -12.5 | VAL W |
| Mar 2, 2022-23 | VAL 50 vs MUR 78 | MUR -0.5 | MUR W |
| Feb 26, 2022-23 | VAL 76 @ MUR 77 | MUR -6.5 | VAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Murray St
12 games played
Straight up
9-3
75% wins
Against the spread
8-4
67% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +7.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OMA | W 85-77 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MVSU | W 108-60 | -38.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMU | L 91-102 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs NICH | W 99-79 | -14.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 18 | vs LR | W 89-68 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 23 | vs MTSU | L 87-90 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs MCN | L 60-73 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 25 | vs GW | W 96-95 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | vs MORE | W 84-52 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs BELL | W 81-68 | -16.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs AKR | W 115-100 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 18 | vs DRKE | W 81-72 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOMA
OMAW 85-77
+2.5
7
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-60
+9.5
11
@SMU
SMUL 91-102
−0.5
15
vsNICH
NICHW 99-79
+5.5
18
vsLR
LRW 89-68
+7.5
23
vsMTSU
MTSUL 87-90
−9.5
24
vsMCN
MCNL 60-73
−10.5
25
vsGW
GWW 96-95
+8.5
2
vsMORE
MOREW 84-52
+15.5
6
vsBELL
BELLW 81-68
−3.5
13
vsAKR
AKRW 115-100
+19.5
18
vsDRKE
DRKEW 81-72
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOMA
OMAW 85-77
+8.5
7
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-60
+8.5
11
@SMU
SMUL 91-102
+28.5
15
vsNICH
NICHW 99-79
+20.5
18
vsLR
LRW 89-68
+3.5
23
vsMTSU
MTSUL 87-90
+15.5
24
vsMCN
MCNL 60-73
−25.5
25
vsGW
GWW 96-95
+23.5
2
vsMORE
MOREW 84-52
−22.5
6
vsBELL
BELLW 81-68
−8.5
13
vsAKR
AKRW 115-100
+46.5
18
vsDRKE
DRKEW 81-72
−3.5
over 8under 4avg +7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vsNICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
over 5under 5avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Murray St
9-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Drake81–72
- Wvs Akron115–100
- Wvs Bellarmine81–68
- Wvs Morehead St84–52
- Wvs G Washington96–95
3 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Northwestern70–86
- Lvs UNC Wilmington70–73
- L@ Marquette72–75
- Wvs W Michigan84–55
- Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles56–64
5 days since their last game.