1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. M-OH @ JMU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Miami (OH) RedHawks at James Madison Dukes

Atlantic Union Bank Center · at James Madison
#125M-OHMiami OH
@
#158JMUJames Madison
LineJMU -1.5moved 3 toward JMU
Total155.5no move
M-OHThis seasonJMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 79–76 · win probability M-OH 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
JMU -1.5
moved 3 toward JMU
Total
155.5
model 154.2 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
M-OH by 4.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

M-OH 4, JMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
M-OHBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: M-OH 14.3%, JMU 17.3%. Forced: M-OH 17.4%, JMU 12.8%
M-OHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: M-OH 39.6, JMU 35.9. Allowed: M-OH 30.2, JMU 40.8
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: M-OH plays 72.1 a game (33rd fastest), JMU 67.5 (253rd). Faster games mean more points
M-OHSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: M-OH 65%, JMU 17%. Transfers in: M-OH 3, JMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
JMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: M-OH 25.5%, JMU 30.6%. Defensive: M-OH 71.3%, JMU 70.5%
M-OHSmall
M-OH offense vs JMU defense
Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings
JMUSmall
Home court
JMU at home. This season: JMU 0-0 at home, M-OH 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
M-OH has played the 207th-hardest schedule, JMU the 257th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
JMU offense vs M-OH defense
Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%; JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 45.6% and 42.5% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2; JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of under 3193856%51%49%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
3 pts toward JMU
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
M-OH -110 · JMU -110
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened M-OH -1.5 · now PK · moved 1.5 toward JMUmodel M-OH -3
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 154
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 155.5TotalUnder 155.5
Bets
Money
M-OHWinnerJMU
Bets
Money
Money leans M-OH · 36 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
M-OHJMUOverUnderM-OHJMU
BetMGMMGM——155.5-105155.5-115-102-118
BetOnline.agBetOnline.agPK-110PK-110155-110155-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+0.5-115-0.5-108155.5-109155.5-117-117-109
BetUSBetUSPK-110PK-110155-110155-110——
BovadaBovada-1-115+1-105155.5-110155.5-110+100-120
DraftKingsDK-1.5-130+1.5+110155.5-105155.5-115-110-110
FanDuelFD+1.5-102-1.5-120155.5-108155.5-112-110-110
LowVig.agLowVig.agPK-106PK-106155-108155-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadJMU -1.5M-OH -3.1M-OH +4.6
Total155.5154.2Under 1.3
Projected score—M-OH 78.6 · JMU 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadM-OH -2.0—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreM-OH 37 · JMU 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: Miami OH 2, James Madison 0, even 3
Miami OHBetterJames Madison
G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85
M-OHBig
G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48
G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61
Even
G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73
G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64
No call
G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51
Even
F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
M-OHBig
F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
Miami OHBetterJames Madison
M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9
M-OHSmall
JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4
M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2
Even
JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
M-OHBig
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
M-OHSmall
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
M-OHSmall
Bench-3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestM-OH betterJMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miami OH
Guards
E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew
Forwards
R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min
James Madison
Guards
G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR
Forwards
J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
M-OHJMU
Scoring
86.3 #10Points per game74.7 #172
1.20 #15Points per possession1.10 #128
72.1 #33Pace (possessions)67.5 #253
Shooting
58.6 #6Effective FG%53.1 #97
37.1 #253-point %35.4 #94
45.6 #553-point attempt rate42.5 #128
39.6 #64Free throw rate35.9 #153
Possessions
14.3 #36Turnover rate17.3 #225
25.5 #332Offensive rebound rate30.6 #175
15.1 #80Assists per game12.5 #252
Defense
76.5 #229Points allowed74.4 #170
1.06 #102Points allowed per possession1.10 #226
51.2 #167Opponent effective FG%49.0 #66
33.1 #131Opponent 3-point %32.7 #101
17.4 #128Turnovers forced12.8 #359
71.3 #92Defensive rebound rate70.5 #134
7.0 #124Steals per game5.1 #327
3.1 #202Blocks per game4.1 #68
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee56–78
  • Wvs SMU89–79
  • Lvs UMass83–87
  • W@ Ohio110–108
  • Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss80–86
  • Wvs Louisiana87–72
  • Lvs Coastal68–69
  • Wvs GA Southern82–66
  • W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.