Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center · at GA Southern
Line
BALL -2.5moved 1 toward BALL
Total158.5up 2 from 156.5
| This season | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects BALL 76–73 · win probability BALL 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BALL -2.5
moved 1 toward BALL
Total
158.5
model 148.2 · Under by 10.5
Model edge
BALL by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
64% GASO
71% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GASO has more of the edges
BALL 2, GASO 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), GASO 71.8 (42nd). Faster games mean more points
BALL offense vs GASO defense
Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings
Shooting
Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3
GASO offense vs BALL defense
Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings
Three-pointers
BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 39.4% and 48.9% of their shots
Home court
GASO at home. This season: GASO 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, GASO 14.7%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, GASO 18.7%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, GASO 28.8%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, GASO 64.8%
Context
Schedule so far
BALL has played the 236th-hardest schedule, GASO the 279th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, GASO 16%. Transfers in: BALL 9, GASO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, GASO 39.6. Allowed: BALL 32.1, GASO 41.4
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road favorites of under 3 | 1412 | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1094 | 54% | 49% | 50% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite | 6763 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 155 to 159.5 | 1555 | 74% | 51% | 49% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenBALL -1.5
1 → BALL
NowBALL -2.5
1 pt toward BALL
Total
Open156.5
▲ 2
Now158.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
BALL -140 · GASO +116
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BALL -1.5 · now BALL -2.5 · moved 1 toward BALLmodel BALL -3.5
model BALL -3.5
Opened 156.5 · now 158.5 · moved 2 upmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | GASO | Over | Under | BALL | GASO | |
| BetMGMMGM | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 158.5-105 | 158.5-115 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +2.5-115 | -2.5-105 | 158-110 | 158-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +1.5-127 | -1.5+100 | 159.5-103 | 159.5-125 | -148 | +116 |
| BetUSBetUS | +2.5-115 | -2.5-105 | 158-110 | 158-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 158-110 | 158-110 | -140 | +120 |
| DraftKingsDK | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 158.5-110 | 158.5-110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuelFD | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | 158.5-110 | 158.5-110 | -146 | +122 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +2.5-111 | -2.5-101 | 158-108 | 158-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BALL -2.5 | BALL -3.3 | BALL +0.8 |
| Total | 158.5 | 148.2 | Under 10.3 |
| Projected score | — | BALL 75.8 · GASO 72.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BALL -2.1 | — |
| 1H total | 69.3 | — |
| 1H projected score | BALL 35.7 · GASO 33.6 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | |
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
BALL 1–1 GASOSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · BALL 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2022-23 | GASO 54 @ BALL 58 | BALL -8.5 | GASO W |
| Nov 9, 2021-22 | BALL 71 @ GASO 82 | GASO -2.5 | GASO W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ball State
29 games played
Straight up
10-19
34% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-20
31% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vs | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ | L 72-85 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 6 | vs | L 52-74 | -1.5 | L −23.5 | 137.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 71-79 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @ | L 77-87 | +20.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 16 | vs | W 76-71 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | @ | W 68-67 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 58-53 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 55-73 | +8.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | @ | L 52-77 | +11.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 73-68 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 53-63 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 68-75 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 17 | @ | L 57-69 | +9.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 20 | vs | L 65-78 | +13.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 24 | vs | W 74-73 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 79-43 | +1.5 | W +37.5 | 133.5 | U 122 |
| Mar 3 | @ | W 74-71 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 145 |
| Mar 6 | vs | W 85-69 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 134.5 | O 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
UL
W 75-64
+6.5
11
@
WIS
L 55-86
−4.5
15
vs
LR
L 62-68
−8.5
22
@
INST
L 52-70
−10.5
28
vs
MONM
L 73-80
−4.5
29
@
LAF
L 37-55
−19.5
30
vs
LEM
W 96-85
+12.5
3
@
EVAN
L 52-64
−5.5
9
vs
SDST
L 64-68
+1.5
14
@
CAM
L 64-69
+3.5
20
vs
M-OH
L 77-86
−1.5
3
@
BUF
L 72-85
−6.5
6
vs
EMU
L 52-74
−23.5
10
@
MASS
L 71-79
+2.5
13
@
AKR
L 77-87
+10.5
16
vs
OHIO
W 76-71
+10.5
20
@
CMU
W 68-67
−0.5
24
vs
NIU
W 58-53
−0.5
31
@
TOL
L 55-73
−9.5
3
@
BGSU
L 52-77
−13.5
7
@
ULM
W 73-68
+0.5
11
vs
BUF
L 53-63
−11.5
14
vs
KENT
L 68-75
+0.5
17
@
OHIO
L 57-69
−2.5
20
vs
AKR
L 65-78
+0.5
24
vs
MASS
W 74-73
+4.5
28
@
NIU
W 79-43
+37.5
3
@
WMU
W 74-71
+4.5
6
vs
CMU
W 85-69
+13.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
UL
W 75-64
−2.5
11
@
WIS
L 55-86
−15.5
15
vs
LR
L 62-68
−16.5
22
@
INST
L 52-70
−32.5
28
vs
MONM
L 73-80
+16.5
29
@
LAF
L 37-55
−48.5
30
vs
LEM
W 96-85
+40.5
3
@
EVAN
L 52-64
−20.5
9
vs
SDST
L 64-68
−10.5
14
@
CAM
L 64-69
−12.5
20
vs
M-OH
L 77-86
+15.5
3
@
BUF
L 72-85
+11.5
6
vs
EMU
L 52-74
−11.5
10
@
MASS
L 71-79
+2.5
13
@
AKR
L 77-87
+11.5
16
vs
OHIO
W 76-71
−0.5
20
@
CMU
W 68-67
−7.5
24
vs
NIU
W 58-53
−30.5
31
@
TOL
L 55-73
−18.5
3
@
BGSU
L 52-77
−8.5
7
@
ULM
W 73-68
−2.5
11
vs
BUF
L 53-63
−25.5
14
vs
KENT
L 68-75
−0.5
17
@
OHIO
L 57-69
−19.5
20
vs
AKR
L 65-78
−4.5
24
vs
MASS
W 74-73
+3.5
28
@
NIU
W 79-43
−11.5
3
@
WMU
W 74-71
+6.5
6
vs
CMU
W 85-69
+19.5
over 9under 20avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
GA Southern
35 games played
Straight up
19-16
54% wins
Against the spread
17-17
50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-15
56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ | L 89-92 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Nov 8 | vs | W 93-90 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | @ | W 95-94 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 189 |
| Nov 18 | @ | L 66-68 | +10.5 | W +8.5 | 164.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 21 | @ | L 72-98 | +18.5 | L −7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 61-67 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 64-77 | -3.5 | L −16.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 29 | vs | W 80-62 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 3 | vs | W 77-69 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ | W 88-84 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ | W 91-85 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 18 | vs | W 90-67 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 20 | vs | W 96-92 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 1 | @ | W 82-81 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 71-87 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vs | W 87-84 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 75-79 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 22 | vs | L 68-85 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 172.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 30 | vs | W 79-76 | — | — | — | — |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 60-69 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 4 | vs | L 71-77 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 11 | vs | L 65-81 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 14 | vs | W 101-87 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 162.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 19 | @ | L 64-66 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 74-89 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 25 | @ | L 66-82 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 27 | @ | W 99-82 | +7.5 | W +24.5 | 168.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 4 | vs | W 88-84 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 172 |
| Mar 5 | vs | W 80-77 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Mar 6 | vs | W 94-85 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 149.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 96-72 | +1.5 | W +25.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 8 | vs | W 82-78 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Mar 9 | vs | L 61-77 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@
ECU
L 89-92
+2.5
8
vs
UNCA
W 93-90
−2.5
11
@
FGCU
W 95-94
+4.5
18
@
GT
L 66-68
+8.5
21
@
FSU
L 72-98
−7.5
24
vs
YSU
L 61-67
−4.5
25
vs
UTSA
L 64-77
−16.5
29
vs
HCU
W 80-62
+10.5
3
vs
LT
W 77-69
+6.5
6
@
GWEB
W 88-84
−6.5
13
@
WGA
W 91-85
+2.5
18
vs
GAST
W 90-67
+13.5
20
vs
JMU
W 96-92
+1.5
1
@
CCU
W 82-81
+2.5
3
@
ODU
W 93-86
+5.5
10
@
USA
L 71-87
−13.5
15
vs
ODU
W 87-84
−2.5
17
vs
CCU
L 75-79
−10.5
22
vs
ARST
L 68-85
−15.5
24
vs
TROY
L 78-83
−0.5
31
@
UL
L 60-69
−11.5
4
vs
TXST
L 71-77
−10.5
11
vs
APP
L 65-81
−14.5
14
vs
MRSH
W 101-87
+16.5
19
@
GAST
L 64-66
−3.5
21
@
APP
L 74-89
−7.5
25
@
JMU
L 66-82
−10.5
27
@
MRSH
W 99-82
+24.5
4
vs
ODU
W 88-84
+1.5
5
vs
ARST
W 80-77
+10.5
6
vs
USA
W 94-85
+13.5
7
vs
CCU
W 96-72
+25.5
8
vs
MRSH
W 82-78
+6.5
9
vs
TROY
L 61-77
−10.5
covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@
ECU
L 89-92
+29.5
8
vs
UNCA
W 93-90
+20.5
11
@
FGCU
W 95-94
+25.5
18
@
GT
L 66-68
−30.5
21
@
FSU
L 72-98
−5.5
24
vs
YSU
L 61-67
−35.5
25
vs
UTSA
L 64-77
−19.5
29
vs
HCU
W 80-62
−6.5
3
vs
LT
W 77-69
+0.5
6
@
GWEB
W 88-84
+9.5
13
@
WGA
W 91-85
+21.5
18
vs
GAST
W 90-67
−2.5
20
vs
JMU
W 96-92
+34.5
1
@
CCU
W 82-81
+5.5
3
@
ODU
W 93-86
+17.5
10
@
USA
L 71-87
+9.5
15
vs
ODU
W 87-84
+8.5
17
vs
CCU
L 75-79
−3.5
22
vs
ARST
L 68-85
−19.5
24
vs
TROY
L 78-83
+1.5
31
@
UL
L 60-69
−15.5
4
vs
TXST
L 71-77
−3.5
11
vs
APP
L 65-81
+2.5
14
vs
MRSH
W 101-87
+25.5
19
@
GAST
L 64-66
−24.5
21
@
APP
L 74-89
+15.5
25
@
JMU
L 66-82
−5.5
27
@
MRSH
W 99-82
+12.5
4
vs
ODU
W 88-84
+14.5
5
vs
ARST
W 80-77
−8.5
6
vs
USA
W 94-85
+29.5
7
vs
CCU
W 96-72
+16.5
8
vs
MRSH
W 82-78
−6.5
9
vs
TROY
L 61-77
−14.5
over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ball State has the better starters
Position by position: Ball State 3, GA Southern 0, even 2
Ball StateBetterGA Southern
G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast
Score 73
←BALLSmall
G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 39
G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 53
←BALLBig
G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 10
G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 50
=No call
G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast
Not ranked
G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 78
←BALLBig
F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 8
F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 9
=Even
F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast
Score 1
Ball StateBetterGA Southern
BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7
←BALLSmall
GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4
BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5
←BALLSmall
GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
←BALLBig
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player
=Even
Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
=Even
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestBALL betterGASO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR
Forwards
M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew
Centers
J. Smith9 min · TR
Guards
J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew
Forwards
T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 66.1 #345 | Points per game | 79.9 #69 |
| 1.00 #325 | Points per possession | 1.12 #109 |
| 65.9 #317 | Pace (possessions) | 71.8 #42 |
| Shooting | ||
| 47.0 #336 | Effective FG% | 51.4 #176 |
| 31.4 #312 | 3-point % | 33.4 #207 |
| 39.4 #186 | 3-point attempt rate | 48.9 #20 |
| 31.6 #263 | Free throw rate | 39.6 #62 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.2 #151 | Turnover rate | 14.7 #49 |
| 27.1 #290 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.8 #238 |
| 12.4 #259 | Assists per game | 10.7 #344 |
| Defense | ||
| 71.4 #88 | Points allowed | 80.3 #325 |
| 1.09 #184 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #259 |
| 52.7 #253 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.3 #230 |
| 34.8 #239 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.4 #208 |
| 18.7 #60 | Turnovers forced | 18.7 #65 |
| 69.0 #204 | Defensive rebound rate | 64.8 #342 |
| 7.5 #88 | Steals per game | 8.1 #36 |
| 2.7 #286 | Blocks per game | 3.6 #128 |
Ball State
10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs C Michigan85–69
- W@ W Michigan74–71
- W@ N Illinois79–43
- Wvs UMass74–73
- Lvs Akron65–78
A week or more of rest.
GA Southern
19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Troy61–77
- Wvs Marshall82–78
- Wvs Coastal96–72
- Wvs South Alabama94–85
- Wvs Arkansas St80–77
A week or more of rest.