Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center · at GA Southern
#181BALLBall State
@
#296GASOGA Southern
LineBALL -2.5moved 1 toward BALL
Total158.5up 2 from 156.5
Season records: Ball State and GA Southern
BALLThis seasonGASO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BALL 76–73 · win probability BALL 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BALL -2.5
moved 1 toward BALL
Total
158.5
model 148.2 · Under by 10.5
Model edge
BALL by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
64% GASO
71% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GASO has more of the edges

BALL 2, GASO 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), GASO 71.8 (42nd). Faster games mean more points
BALLBig
BALL offense vs GASO defense
Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings
GASOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3
BALLSmall
GASO offense vs BALL defense
Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings
GASOSmall
Three-pointers
BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 39.4% and 48.9% of their shots
GASOSmall
Home court
GASO at home. This season: GASO 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away
GASOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, GASO 14.7%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, GASO 18.7%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, GASO 28.8%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, GASO 64.8%
Context
Schedule so far
BALL has played the 236th-hardest schedule, GASO the 279th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, GASO 16%. Transfers in: BALL 9, GASO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, GASO 39.6. Allowed: BALL 32.1, GASO 41.4

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Road favorites of under 3141254%50%50%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward BALL
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
BALL -140 · GASO +116
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BALL -1.5 · now BALL -2.5 · moved 1 toward BALLmodel BALL -3.5
Opened 156.5 · now 158.5 · moved 2 upmodel 148
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
BALL -2.5SpreadGASO +2.5
Bets
Money
BALLWinnerGASO
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
BALLGASOOverUnderBALLGASO
BetMGMMGM+2.5-110-2.5-110158.5-105158.5-115-140+115
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+2.5-115-2.5-105158-110158-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+1.5-127-1.5+100159.5-103159.5-125-148+116
BetUSBetUS+2.5-115-2.5-105158-110158-110——
BovadaBovada+2.5-110-2.5-110158-110158-110-140+120
DraftKingsDK+2.5-110-2.5-110158.5-110158.5-110-125+105
FanDuelFD+2.5-110-2.5-110158.5-110158.5-110-146+122
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+2.5-111-2.5-101158-108158-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadBALL -2.5BALL -3.3BALL +0.8
Total158.5148.2Under 10.3
Projected score—BALL 75.8 · GASO 72.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadBALL -2.1—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreBALL 35.7 · GASO 33.6—

Ball State has the better starters

Position by position: Ball State 3, GA Southern 0, even 2
Ball StateBetterGA Southern
G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73
BALLSmall
G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39
G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53
BALLBig
G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10
G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50
No call
G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
BALLBig
F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
Even
F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
Ball StateBetterGA Southern
BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7
BALLSmall
GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4
BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5
BALLSmall
GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
BALLBig
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestBALL betterGASO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ball State
Guards
Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR
Forwards
M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew
Centers
J. Smith9 min · TR
GA Southern
Guards
J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew
Forwards
T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BALLGASO
Scoring
66.1 #345Points per game79.9 #69
1.00 #325Points per possession1.12 #109
65.9 #317Pace (possessions)71.8 #42
Shooting
47.0 #336Effective FG%51.4 #176
31.4 #3123-point %33.4 #207
39.4 #1863-point attempt rate48.9 #20
31.6 #263Free throw rate39.6 #62
Possessions
16.2 #151Turnover rate14.7 #49
27.1 #290Offensive rebound rate28.8 #238
12.4 #259Assists per game10.7 #344
Defense
71.4 #88Points allowed80.3 #325
1.09 #184Points allowed per possession1.11 #259
52.7 #253Opponent effective FG%52.3 #230
34.8 #239Opponent 3-point %34.4 #208
18.7 #60Turnovers forced18.7 #65
69.0 #204Defensive rebound rate64.8 #342
7.5 #88Steals per game8.1 #36
2.7 #286Blocks per game3.6 #128

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs C Michigan85–69
  • W@ W Michigan74–71
  • W@ N Illinois79–43
  • Wvs UMass74–73
  • Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy61–77
  • Wvs Marshall82–78
  • Wvs Coastal96–72
  • Wvs South Alabama94–85
  • Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.