Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -6.5✓ BUF covered by 6.5
BUF -6.5✓ BUF covered by 6.5Closing total145.5Over by 11.5
 BALL | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2-9 | Record | 10-2 |
| 4-7 | ATS | 9-3 |
| 3-8 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BALL 68–75 BUF · ✓ BUF (74%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 25 | 47 | 72 |
| BUF | 41 | 44 | 85 |
1st half: BALL 25, BUF 41 (BUF by 16). The model had BUF by 4.2 and a total of 67.2 (actual 66).
Team stats
| BALL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-55 40% | Field goals | 29-51 57% |
| 9-25 36% | 3-pointers | 10-22 45% |
| 19-23 83% | Free throws | 17-18 94% |
| 28 13 off | Rebounds | 30 8 off |
| 15 | Assists | 19 |
| 11 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmore James IV G | 32 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-7 |
| Mason Jones F | 32 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Armoni Zeigler G | 29 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-4 |
| Devon Barnes G | 25 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Preston Copeland F | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Davion Hill G | 24 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 5-10 | 3-4 |
| Cam Denson F | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Kody Clancy G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jai Anthoni Bearden F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Juwan Maxey, Zane Doughty, Kayden Fish, Joey Hart
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 37 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 34 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 6-10 | 4-5 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 30 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 30 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 22 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 22 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Kyle Jones, Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -8.5
2 → BALL
CloseBUF -6.5
2 pts toward BALL
Total
Open141.5
▲ 4
Close145.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
BALL +240 · BUF -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -8.5 · closed BUF -6.5 · moved 2 toward BALLmodel BUF -7.5
model BUF -7.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 4 upmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -6.5 | BUF -7.3 | BUF +0.8 | W BUF covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 143.4 | Under 2.1 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | BALL 68.1 · BUF 75.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BUF -4.2 | BUF -16.0 |
| 1H total | 67.2 | 66 |
| 1H projected score | BALL 31.5 · BUF 35.7 | BALL 25 · BUF 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| BUF | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
BALL 3–3 BUFSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · BALL has won the last 3 meetings · BALL 5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | BUF 66 @ BALL 80 | BALL -9.5 | BALL W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | BALL 89 @ BUF 76 | BUF +2.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | BALL 87 @ BUF 59 | BUF +1.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 24, 2022-23 | BUF 91 @ BALL 65 | BALL -5.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | BALL 74 @ BUF 80 | BUF -11.5 | BALL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ball State
11 games played
Straight up
2-9
18% wins
Against the spread
4-7
36% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-8
27% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ WIS | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs LR | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ INST | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs MONM | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ LAF | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs LEM | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @ EVAN | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs SDST | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ CAM | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vs M-OH | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−4.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−8.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−10.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
−4.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−19.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+12.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−5.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
+1.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
+3.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−1.5
covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−15.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−16.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−32.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
+16.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−48.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+40.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−20.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
−10.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
−12.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
+15.5
over 3under 8avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
12 games played
Straight up
10-2
83% wins
Against the spread
9-3
75% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 3avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
over 6under 6avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ball State
2-9 overall · 0-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami OH77–86
- L@ Campbell64–69
- Lvs S Dakota St64–68
- L@ Evansville52–64
- Wvs Le Moyne96–85
A week or more of rest.
Buffalo
10-2 overall · 2-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ N Illinois81–67
- W@ W Michigan88–71
- L@ East Carolina70–73
- W@ UMBC83–79
- Lvs St Bonaventure69–77
3 days since their last game.