NIU Convocation Center · at N Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -6.5✓ BUF covered by 7.5
BUF -6.5✓ BUF covered by 7.5Closing total152.5Under by 4.5
| BUF | This season | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | Record | 3-7 |
| 8-3 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 4-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 79–74 NIU · ✓ BUF (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 43 | 38 | 81 |
| NIU | 29 | 38 | 67 |
1st half: BUF 43, NIU 29 (BUF by 14). The model had BUF by 3.1 and a total of 71.6 (actual 72).
Team stats
| BUF | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 23-56 41% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 7-32 22% |
| 16-23 70% | Free throws | 14-16 88% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 31 10 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 10 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 37 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 11-17 | 4-8 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 37 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 4-13 | 2-8 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 29 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Tim Oboh F | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 18 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 26 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Daniel Shao, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Kyle Jones, Aleksa Vlajic, Evan Romano
| NIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ducommun G | 37 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7-19 | 3-12 |
| Makhai Valentine G | 33 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
| Taj Walters G | 30 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Gustav Winther F | 26 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Daemar Kelly G | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gianni Cobb G | 25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Jao Ituka G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Hassan Washington F | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Ladji Kante F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Isaiah Washington, Carlos Coronado, JJ Taylor, Isaiah Stewart, Max Laskey, Jaylen Wharton, Lataevyon Taylor
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -6.5
no move
CloseBUF -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open154.5
▼ 2
Close152.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
BUF -270 · NIU +220
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -6.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -5
model BUF -5
Opened 154.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 downmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -6.5 | BUF -5.0 | NIU +1.5 | L BUF covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 152.9 | Over 0.4 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | BUF 79 · NIU 74 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BUF -3.1 | BUF -14.0 |
| 1H total | 71.6 | 72 |
| 1H projected score | BUF 37.4 · NIU 34.2 | BUF 43 · NIU 29 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| NIU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BUF 5–2 NIUBUF leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BUF 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | BUF 73 @ NIU 67 | NIU -1.5 | BUF W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | NIU 78 @ BUF 68 | BUF +1.5 | NIU W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | BUF 68 @ NIU 72 | NIU -9.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | BUF 85 @ NIU 75 | NIU +4.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | NIU 62 @ BUF 80 | BUF -10.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
over 6under 5avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
N Illinois
10 games played
Straight up
3-7
30% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ULM | W 102-82 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | @ WIS | L 72-97 | +28.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 10 | @ GCU | L 59-88 | +22.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNI | L 57-70 | +19.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ LUC | W 76-59 | +13.5 | W +30.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 25 | @ APSU | L 59-77 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 2 | vs LIN | L 64-99 | -3.5 | L −38.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @ BRAD | L 55-84 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 13 | @ ELON | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 20 | vs CMU | W 74-73 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+12.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+3.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−6.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
+6.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
+30.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
−38.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−10.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+5.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+36.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+11.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−16.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
−19.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
−13.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
+15.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−7.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+7.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−2.5
over 4under 6avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
9-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ W Michigan88–71
- L@ East Carolina70–73
- W@ UMBC83–79
- Lvs St Bonaventure69–77
- W@ Canisius71–53
A week or more of rest.
N Illinois
3-7 overall · 1-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs C Michigan74–73
- L@ Elon79–85
- L@ Bradley55–84
- Lvs Lindenwood Lions64–99
- L@ Austin Peay59–77
A week or more of rest.