Northern Illinois Huskies at Bradley Braves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 8:00 PM ETCarver Arena · at Bradley

Final

#167BRADBradley84▲ winner

Closing lineBRAD -18.5✓ BRAD covered by 10.5

Closing total146.5Under by 7.5

Season records: N Illinois and Bradley
NIU	This season	BRAD
2-5	Record	5-4
4-3	ATS	3-6
3-4	O/U	4-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIU 65–83 BRAD · ✓ BRAD (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIU	26	29	55
BRAD	39	45	84

1st half: NIU 26, BRAD 39 (BRAD by 13). The model had BRAD by 10.3 and a total of 69.1 (actual 65).

Team stats

NIU		BRAD
19-65 29%	Field goals	30-59 51%
6-30 20%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
11-24 46%	Free throws	15-19 79%
45 21 off	Rebounds	37 6 off
6	Assists	14
4	Steals	9
1	Blocks	8
18	Turnovers	10
22	Fouls	22
26	Points in paint	40
6	Fast-break points	12

Players

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Ducommun G	31	17	6	0	6-15	2-6
Gustav Winther F	26	5	8	0	1-5	0-1
Daemar Kelly G	26	4	3	2	1-6	1-4
Makhai Valentine G	21	10	6	1	4-11	2-6
Taj Walters G	21	2	6	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Gianni Cobb G	33	11	5	3	3-10	1-4
Hassan Washington F	17	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Jao Ituka G	15	0	3	0	0-4	0-4
Isaiah Washington G	6	4	3	0	2-5	0-1
Carlos Coronado G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ladji Kante F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Max Laskey, Isaiah Stewart, Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor, Jaylen Wharton

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Huibregtse G	29	16	8	2	6-9	4-7
Demarion Burch G	28	2	3	3	1-9	0-5
Jaquan Johnson G	27	21	2	2	6-8	2-3
AJ Smith F	26	10	6	1	4-7	1-3
Ahmet Jonovic C	18	6	4	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Timoty van der Knaap G	19	8	5	0	4-5	0-0
Montana Wheeler G	19	9	3	3	2-4	2-2
Corey Thomas F	16	6	4	1	1-5	0-3
Dietrich Richardson G	5	4	0	2	2-4	0-0
Matthew Zobrist G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Kai Yu C	4	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Handy Toussaint III F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Gus Rugaard G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jackson Seastrunk, Gustavo Guimares

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRAD -18.5	BRAD -17.3	NIU +1.2	L BRAD covered
Total	146.5	147.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	NIU 65.2 · BRAD 82.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRAD -10.3	BRAD -13.0
1H total	69.1	65
1H projected score	NIU 29.4 · BRAD 39.7	NIU 26 · BRAD 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWWLL	4-3	57%	3-2	3-2
BRAD LWLWL	3-6	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; BRAD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5
BRAD OOOUU	4-5	44%	5-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
BRADlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 0–1 BRADBRAD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NIU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	NIU 60 @ BRAD 76	BRAD -19.5	NIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

over 3under 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bradley

9 games played

Straight up

5-4

56% wins

Against the spread

3-6

33% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-456%

L W L L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-633%

L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-544%

U U O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 19	vsUML	W 87-77	-21.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsPRIN	W 88-64	-9.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsUCSD	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsLIB	W 74-64	+4.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 2	vsWSU	W 64-60	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

UML

W 87-77

−11.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+14.5

UCSD

L 77-87

−11.5

LIB

W 74-64

+14.5

WSU

W 64-60

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 6avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

UML

W 87-77

+14.5

PRIN

W 88-64

+10.5

UCSD

L 77-87

+18.5

LIB

W 74-64

−6.5

WSU

W 64-60

−24.5

over 4under 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois @ Bradley

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Bradley

N Illinois

Bradley