Ball State Cardinals at Campbell Fighting Camels: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 14, 2:00 PM ETJohn W. Pope Jr. Convocation Center · at Campbell

#181BALLBall State64final

Final

#243CAMCampbell69▲ winner

Closing lineCAM -8.5✓ BALL covered by 3.5

Closing total145.5Under by 12.5

Season records: Ball State and Campbell
BALL	This season	CAM
2-7	Record	2-5
3-6	ATS	3-4
2-7	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BALL 68–76 CAM · ✓ CAM (77%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BALL	30	34	64
CAM	30	39	69

1st half: BALL 30, CAM 30 (tied). The model had CAM by 5.0 and a total of 67.6 (actual 60).

Team stats

BALL		CAM
24-59 41%	Field goals	24-62 39%
2-14 14%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
14-20 70%	Free throws	16-29 55%
38 12 off	Rebounds	45 19 off
7	Assists	13
6	Steals	4
4	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	12
21	Fouls	17
42	Points in paint	32
7	Fast-break points	11

Players

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Jones F	37	7	4	0	3-8	1-4
Joey Hart G	33	15	3	0	5-10	1-4
Armoni Zeigler G	29	7	10	2	2-9	0-1
Davion Hill G	22	8	3	1	2-8	0-1
Preston Copeland F	20	10	8	0	5-6	0-0
Bench
Kayden Fish F	23	11	4	1	5-10	0-1
Devon Barnes G	13	4	2	2	1-2	0-1
Elmore James IV G	12	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Juwan Maxey G	11	0	1	1	0-4	0-1

Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Kody Clancy, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Zane Doughty, Cam Denson

CAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Smith G	39	20	1	1	5-16	3-10
Cam Gregory G	38	5	6	4	2-8	1-5
Dovydas Butka F	35	22	10	1	8-16	0-2
Jeremiah Johnson G	19	2	5	1	1-3	0-2
Muneer Newton F	12	1	2	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Chris Fields Jr. F	31	14	14	2	6-12	0-0
Tasos Cook G	21	5	1	3	2-6	1-4
Enoch Kalambay G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Dominykas Butka, Daniel Marcellinus, Klairus Amir, Israel Yaw, Broc Bidwell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAM -8.5	CAM -8.6	CAM +0.1	L BALL covered
Total	145.5	144.2	Under 1.3	W Under
Projected score	—	BALL 67.8 · CAM 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAM -5.0	PK
1H total	67.6	60
1H projected score	BALL 31.3 · CAM 36.3	BALL 30 · CAM 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLWLW	3-6	33%	0-4	2-4
CAM LLWLW	3-4	43%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; CAM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUOUU	2-7	22%	2-7
CAM OOUUO	4-3	57%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	2-7 22%
CAMlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ball State

9 games played

Straight up

2-7

22% wins

Against the spread

3-6

33% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-7

22% overs · avg −9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-722%

W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-633%

W L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-722%

U U U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 6avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

over 2under 7avg −9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Campbell

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WIS	L 64-96	+20.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 6	@WVU	L 65-73	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsWMU	W 91-82	-9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 19	@WEB	L 85-91	+1.5	L −4.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsUTA	W 71-67	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 25	@WAKE	L 51-99	+17.5	L −30.5	159.5	U 150
Dec 2	@PSU	L 76-87	+14.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

−11.5

WVU

L 65-73

+7.5

WMU

W 91-82

−0.5

WEB

L 85-91

−4.5

UTA

W 71-67

+2.5

WAKE

L 51-99

−30.5

PSU

L 76-87

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

+8.5

WVU

L 65-73

−0.5

WMU

W 91-82

+20.5

WEB

L 85-91

+16.5

UTA

W 71-67

−13.5

WAKE

L 51-99

−9.5

PSU

L 76-87

+8.5

over 4under 3avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State Cardinals at Campbell Fighting Camels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Ball State

Campbell

Ball State

Campbell