Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 6, 7:00 PM ETWorthen Arena · at Ball State · Conference game

#188EMUE Michigan74▲ winner

Final

#181BALLBall State52final

Closing lineBALL -1.5✓ EMU covered by 23.5

Closing total137.5Under by 11.5

Season records: E Michigan and Ball State
EMU	This season	BALL
6-8	Record	2-10
10-4	ATS	4-8
4-10	O/U	4-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EMU 69–67 BALL · ✓ EMU (57%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EMU	39	35	74
BALL	25	27	52

1st half: EMU 39, BALL 25 (EMU by 14). The model had EMU by 1.3 and a total of 64.0 (actual 64).

Team stats

EMU		BALL
29-50 58%	Field goals	17-51 33%
11-21 52%	3-pointers	5-16 31%
5-6 83%	Free throws	13-15 87%
37 10 off	Rebounds	18 7 off
16	Assists	10
1	Steals	6
2	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	9
28	Points in paint	18
2	Fast-break points	8

Players

EMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mohammad Habhab F	32	9	9	3	3-5	0-0
Carlos Hart G	30	18	2	3	7-10	2-3
Addison Patterson F	27	12	6	2	5-8	2-3
Braelon Green G	23	3	3	3	1-6	1-5
Godslove Nwabude F	16	0	6	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Mak Manciel G	15	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Jon Sanders II G	15	8	1	2	3-5	2-3
Mehki Ellison G	10	3	0	1	1-4	1-2
Aidan Rubio G	8	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
John Shanu II C	8	4	3	0	2-2	0-0
Gregory Lawson II G	5	5	0	0	2-3	1-1
Merritt Alderink F	5	5	0	0	2-3	1-2
Mbaye N'Diaye G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cooper Smith G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Jones F	37	5	5	1	2-8	1-2
Elmore James IV G	35	13	0	1	5-11	1-4
Armoni Zeigler G	33	15	1	4	4-9	0-2
Devon Barnes G	28	5	0	3	2-10	1-4
Preston Copeland F	20	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Davion Hill G	23	5	1	0	1-5	1-3
Cam Denson F	17	0	2	1	0-2	0-0
Jai Anthoni Bearden F	3	4	1	0	1-2	0-0
Kody Clancy G	3	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Easton Foster F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Juwan Maxey, Joey Hart, Kayden Fish, Alex Farley, Zane Doughty

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BALL -1.5	EMU -2.0	EMU +3.5	W EMU covered
Total	137.5	136.5	Under 1.0	W Under
Projected score	—	EMU 69.2 · BALL 67.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	EMU -1.3	EMU -14.0
1H total	64.0	64
1H projected score	EMU 32.6 · BALL 31.3	EMU 39 · BALL 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LLWWW	10-4	71%	5-3	8-3
BALL LWWLL	4-8	33%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UOUOU	4-10	29%	6-8
BALL UUUOO	4-8	33%	2-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
BALL	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

EMU 2–5 BALLBALL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · EMU 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2024-25	EMU 84 @ BALL 86	BALL -4.5	EMU W
Feb 24, 2023-24	EMU 58 @ BALL 56	BALL -10.5	EMU W
Jan 16, 2023-24	BALL 76 @ EMU 62	EMU +1.5	BALL W
Feb 25, 2022-23	BALL 68 @ EMU 75	EMU +7.5	EMU W
Feb 3, 2022-23	EMU 90 @ BALL 91	BALL -10.5	EMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Michigan

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

10-4

71% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

W L L W W L W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-471%

W W L W W L W W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

U O U U O U U U U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGAST	W 71-49	-3.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 10	@PITT	L 66-78	+15.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 14	vsIUIN	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@DETM	W 72-62	+1.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	vsOAK	W 97-91	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	@LOU	L 46-87	+33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 133
Nov 26	@CIN	W 64-56	+22.5	W +30.5	146.5	U 120
Nov 28	vsNJIT	W 73-55	-14.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 2	@BTLR	L 68-84	+17.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 10	@PFW	L 65-80	+3.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 19	@AKR	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 165
Dec 22	@WRST	L 64-70	+10.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 30	vsMASS	W 80-74	+2.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsOHIO	L 67-68	+2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

+18.5

PITT

L 66-78

+3.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−11.5

DETM

W 72-62

+11.5

OAK

W 97-91

+7.5

LOU

L 46-87

−7.5

CIN

W 64-56

+30.5

NJIT

W 73-55

+3.5

BTLR

L 68-84

+1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−11.5

AKR

L 72-93

−5.5

WRST

L 64-70

+4.5

MASS

W 80-74

+8.5

OHIO

L 67-68

+1.5

covered 10didn’t cover 4avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

−29.5

PITT

L 66-78

+2.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−13.5

DETM

W 72-62

−23.5

OAK

W 97-91

+34.5

LOU

L 46-87

−29.5

CIN

W 64-56

−26.5

NJIT

W 73-55

−13.5

BTLR

L 68-84

−1.5

PFW

L 65-80

−2.5

AKR

L 72-93

+9.5

WRST

L 64-70

−8.5

MASS

W 80-74

+5.5

OHIO

L 67-68

−15.5

over 4under 10avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

12 games played

Straight up

2-10

17% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1017%

W L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

W L L L L L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-833%

U U U U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 14	@CAM	L 64-69	+8.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+7.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUF	L 72-85	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

CAM

L 64-69

+3.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−1.5

BUF

L 72-85

−6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

CAM

L 64-69

−12.5

M-OH

L 77-86

+15.5

BUF

L 72-85

+11.5

over 4under 8avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ball State Cardinals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Michigan

Ball State

E Michigan

Ball State