UD Arena · at Dayton
#316NJITNJIT
@
#91DAYDayton
LineDAY -22.5moved 1 toward NJIT
Total145.5no move
Season records: NJIT and Dayton
NJITThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 82–59 · win probability DAY 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
DAY -22.5
moved 1 toward NJIT
Total
145.5
model 141.6 · Under by 4
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
59% NJIT
53% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

NJIT 0, DAY 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DAYBig
NJIT offense vs DAY defense
Offense 338th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NJIT has played the 282nd-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DAYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NJIT 33.2, DAY 46.1. Allowed: NJIT 37.9, DAY 35.5
DAYBig
DAY offense vs NJIT defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 250th, on the model’s ratings
DAYBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NJIT 17.1%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: NJIT 16.1%, DAY 21.0%
DAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NJIT 26.2%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: NJIT 67.9%, DAY 71.2%
DAYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NJIT 46.7 and allows 50.0; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, NJIT 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NJIT hits 30.4% and allows 32.3%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 40.1% and 41.4% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NJIT 39%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: NJIT 4, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NJIT plays 67.9 a game (235th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward NJIT
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
NJIT +2200 · DAY -8000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened DAY -23.5 · now DAY -22.5 · moved 1 toward NJITmodel DAY -23
Opened 145.5 · now 144.5 · moved 1 downmodel 141.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
NJIT +22.5SpreadDAY -22.5
Bets
Money
Over 145.5TotalUnder 145.5
Bets
Money
NJITWinnerDAY
Bets
Money

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NJITDAYOverUnderNJITDAY
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-22.5-110+22.5-110144.5-110144.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-23.5-113+23.5-113145.5-112145.5-114——
BovadaBovada-22.5-110+22.5-110144.5-110144.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-22.5-105+22.5-115145.5-110145.5-110+2200-8000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-22.5-106+22.5-106144.5-108144.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadDAY -22.5DAY -22.8DAY +0.3
Total145.5141.6Under 3.9
Projected score—NJIT 59.4 · DAY 82.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -13.4—
1H total66.3—
1H projected scoreNJIT 26.4 · DAY 39.8—

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: NJIT 0, Dayton 5, even 0
NJITBetterDayton
G D. Bolden12 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.8 ast Score 47
DAYSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G M. Tatum TR8.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13
DAYBig
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G Q. Duncan4.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
DAYSmall
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
F M. Coffi TR3.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 28
DAYBig
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
F J. Kelly4.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 20
DAYBig
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
NJITBetterDayton
NJIT offense338th of 366 · -11.1
DAYBig
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
NJIT defense250th of 366 · -6.6
DAYBig
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players
DAYBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 2 players
DAYBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-3.4 · 4 players
DAYBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNJIT betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NJIT
Guards
D. Bolden30 minM. Tatum26 min · TRQ. Duncan14 minR. Awad13 minB. Stores4 min · TRA. AltobelliNew
Forwards
M. Coffi19 min · TRJ. Kelly16 minB. Oliver10 min · TRZ. Scherler7 minV. VanderstraetenNew
Centers
S. Jimenez-VojnicNew
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NJITDAY
Scoring
66.2 #344Points per game74.1 #193
0.98 #343Points per possession1.09 #167
67.9 #235Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
46.7 #342Effective FG%51.6 #168
30.4 #3363-point %33.9 #182
40.1 #1683-point attempt rate41.4 #142
33.2 #233Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
17.1 #215Turnover rate16.9 #198
26.2 #316Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
10.5 #350Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
73.7 #147Points allowed69.3 #50
1.08 #167Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
50.0 #99Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
32.3 #79Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
16.1 #214Turnovers forced21.0 #11
67.9 #264Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
6.3 #204Steals per game8.2 #31
3.1 #197Blocks per game3.9 #90

NJIT

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-7 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Vermont54–63
  • Wvs Maine60–58
  • Lvs UMBC52–91
  • L@ Bryant52–69
  • Lvs Vermont64–70

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.