1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. SIE @ DAY
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Siena Saints at Dayton Flyers

UD Arena · at Dayton
#260SIESiena
@
#91DAYDayton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SIEThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 79–62 · win probability DAY 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

SIE 1, DAY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DAYBig
SIE offense vs DAY defense
Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SIE has played the 320th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DAYSmall
DAY offense vs SIE defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: SIE plays 64.4 a game (354th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points
SIESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIE 31.8%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: SIE 70.5%, DAY 71.2%
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, SIE 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIE 15.8%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: SIE 17.0%, DAY 21.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIE 33.4, DAY 46.1. Allowed: SIE 27.5, DAY 35.5
Even
Three-pointers
SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 32.2% and 41.4% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIE 28%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: SIE 1, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAY -17.2—
Total—141.0—
Projected score—SIE 61.9 · DAY 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -10.1—
1H total66.0—
1H projected scoreSIE 27.9 · DAY 38.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: Siena 0, Dayton 3, even 2
SienaBetterDayton
G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30
DAYSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17
DAYBig
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
DAYBig
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
SienaBetterDayton
SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6
DAYBig
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7
DAYSmall
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players
DAYBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSIE betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Siena
Guards
T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIEDAY
Scoring
70.4 #276Points per game74.1 #193
1.09 #154Points per possession1.09 #167
64.4 #354Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
50.4 #222Effective FG%51.6 #168
30.6 #3303-point %33.9 #182
32.2 #3273-point attempt rate41.4 #142
33.4 #226Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
15.8 #126Turnover rate16.9 #198
31.8 #133Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
13.5 #182Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
65.8 #12Points allowed69.3 #50
1.02 #44Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
48.5 #48Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
32.4 #82Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
17.0 #154Turnovers forced21.0 #11
70.5 #133Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
5.8 #262Steals per game8.2 #31
3.1 #205Blocks per game3.9 #90
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke65–71
  • Wvs Merrimack64–54
  • Wvs Fairfield76–61
  • Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
  • Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.