UD Arena · at Dayton
Closing line
DAY -30.5✓ UNF covered by 7.5
DAY -30.5✓ UNF covered by 7.5Closing total159.5Under by 14.5
 UNF | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 0-7 | Record | 7-3 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNF 68–93 DAY · ✓ DAY (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNF | 23 | 38 | 61 |
| DAY | 46 | 38 | 84 |
1st half: UNF 23, DAY 46 (DAY by 23). The model had DAY by 14.9 and a total of 75.5 (actual 69).
Team stats
| UNF | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-62 34% | Field goals | 34-65 52% |
| 8-29 28% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 8-17 47% |
| 37 15 off | Rebounds | 43 14 off |
| 9 | Assists | 18 |
| 6 | Steals | 11 |
| 1 | Blocks | 8 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| UNF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamrin Oriol G | 38 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-7 |
| Kent Jackson G | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-11 | 2-10 |
| Dalton Gayman F | 21 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Mason Lee G | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Devin Hines G | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| BJ Plummer G | 26 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Nestor Dyachok F | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Trey Cady G | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-11 | 2-4 |
| Dante Oliver G | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Taylor Thompson G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gabe Jacobs, Mason Watkins, Alex Vargo, Arden Begaj
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Derkack G | 29 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 26 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-4 |
| Javon Bennett G | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 21 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 9-10 | 4-4 |
| Keonte Jones G | 21 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacob Conner F | 23 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Bryce Heard G | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 14 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 7-8 | 0-1 |
| Evan Dickey G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Makai Grant G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Damon Friery F | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Adam Njie, Jaron McKie, Will Maxwell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDAY -30.5
ModelDAY -25.0
Model edgeUNF +5.5
W UNF covered
Total
Market159.5
Model161.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
L Under
Projected score
UNF 68.2 · DAY 93.1
UNF 61 · DAY 84
Win probability
DAY 99%
1st half
Spread
DAY -14.9
DAY -23.0
Total
75.5
69 points
Projected score
UNF 30.3 · DAY 45.2
UNF 23 · DAY 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -29.5
1 → DAY
CloseDAY -30.5
1 pt toward DAY
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -29.5 · closed DAY -30.5 · moved 1 toward DAYmodel DAY -25
model DAY -25
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 161.5
model 161.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNFlast 7 | 0-7 0% | 5-2 71% | 5-2 71% |
| DAY | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Florida
7 games played
Straight up
0-7
0% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@
FLA
FLAL 64-104
+3.5
12
@
TENN
TENNL 66-99
+8.5
19
@
WOF
WOFL 78-86
+2.5
22
vs
USM
USML 83-92
+0.5
23
vs
PV
PVL 82-85
+0.5
2
vs
SIUE
SIUEL 63-72
−1.5
7
@
GONZ
GONZL 58-109
−8.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@FLA
FLAL 64-104
−1.5
12
@TENN
TENNL 66-99
+9.5
19
@WOF
WOFL 78-86
+2.5
22
vsUSM
USML 83-92
+20.5
23
vsPV
PVL 82-85
+6.5
2
vsSIUE
SIUEL 63-72
−18.5
7
@GONZ
GONZL 58-109
+0.5
over 5under 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
over 5under 5avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Florida
0-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Gonzaga58–109
- Lvs SIUE63–72
- Lvs Prairie View82–85
- Lvs Southern Miss83–92
- L@ Wofford78–86
6 days since their last game.
Dayton
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Virginia73–86
- Wvs ETSU88–71
- Lvs BYU79–83
- Wvs Georgetown84–79
- Wvs NC Central74–55
A week or more of rest.