Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

#18MIAHeat

LineLAL -1.5no move

Total236.5down 3 from 239.5

Season records: Heat and Lakers
MIA	This season	LAL
2-4	Record	5-2
2-4	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 122–117 · win probability LAL 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

LAL -1.5

no move since the open

Total

236.5

model 238.9 · Over by 2.5

Model edge

LAL by 3.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

51% LAL

47% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

MIA 3, LAL 4 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs LAL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.7% of their shots

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

MIASmall

Rest

MIA 3 days since its last game, LAL 1

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, LAL 67.4%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, LAL 37.2. Allowed: MIA 23.2, LAL 30.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	474	51%	47%	44%
Non-conference games at this spread	276	55%	51%	50%
Games with a total of 235 to 239.5	531	68%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; LAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ LAC	W140–123WO
Nov 5	@ GS	L112–135LO
Nov 8	@ SAC	W130–117WO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ SAC	W128–104WU
Nov 6	vs POR	L129–136LO
Nov 8	@ DET	L110–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 5–5 LALSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	LAL 134 @ MIA 126	MIA -3.5	LAL W
Nov 2, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ LAL 130	LAL -4.5	LAL W
Jan 15, 2024-25	MIA 108 @ LAL 117	LAL -4.5	LAL W
Dec 4, 2024-25	LAL 93 @ MIA 134	MIA -3.5	MIA W
Jan 3, 2023-24	MIA 110 @ LAL 96	LAL -5.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Heat 2, Lakers 2, even 1

HeatBetterLakers

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIASmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

HeatBetterLakers

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

LAL6.7 #3

MIA		LAL
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.18 #2
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
34.1 #19	3-point %	38.9 #4
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
28.8 #3	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
8.3 #19	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

3 days since their last game.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

1 day since their last game.

Heat @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Lakers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Lakers