Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 9:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Kings
MIA	This season	SAC
2-4	Record	0-6
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 125–116 · win probability MIA 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 4, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs SAC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, SAC 14.6%

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, SAC 26.4. Allowed: MIA 23.2, SAC 31.2

MIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 38.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

SAC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, SAC 73.7%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ UTAH	L111–115LU
Nov 13	vs CLE	L128–149LO
Nov 14	vs DET	L111–128LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs ORL	L117–121WO
Nov 13	vs POR	L120–128WO
Nov 15	vs OKC	L99–113WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 5–5 SACSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 20, 2025-26	MIA 130 @ SAC 117	SAC +4.5	MIA W
Dec 6, 2025-26	SAC 127 @ MIA 111	MIA -8.5	SAC W
Jan 6, 2024-25	MIA 118 @ SAC 123	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Nov 4, 2024-25	SAC 111 @ MIA 110	MIA -0.5	SAC W
Feb 26, 2023-24	MIA 121 @ SAC 110	SAC -7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 4, Kings 0, even 1

HeatBetterKings

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIABig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIABig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

HeatBetterKings

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

SAC2.3 #30

MIA		SAC
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.03 #28
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
34.1 #19	3-point %	30.4 #27
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
28.8 #3	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
8.3 #19	Steals per game	8.0 #21
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Kings

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Kings

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Kings