Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Kings
ORL	This season	SAC
2-4	Record	0-6
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 120–112 · win probability ORL 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

ORL 5, SAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

ORLBig

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 46.5% and 38.0% of their shots

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

ORLBig

SAC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, SAC 26.4. Allowed: ORL 29.8, SAC 31.2

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, SAC 73.7%

SACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, SAC 14.6%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ UTAH	W120–117LO
Nov 13	vs MIL	W130–91WO
Nov 16	@ BOS	L97–108LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs POR	L120–128WO
Nov 15	vs OKC	L99–113WU
Nov 18	vs PHX	L103–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 4–6 SACSAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 4 meetings · ORL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 26, 2025-26	SAC 117 @ ORL 121	ORL -15.5	SAC W
Feb 19, 2025-26	ORL 131 @ SAC 94	SAC +8.5	ORL W
Mar 29, 2024-25	SAC 91 @ ORL 121	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Feb 5, 2024-25	ORL 130 @ SAC 111	SAC -3.5	ORL W
Mar 23, 2023-24	SAC 109 @ ORL 107	ORL -2.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 4, Kings 1, even 0

MagicBetterKings

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

ORLBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

ORLSmall

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

ORLSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

MagicBetterKings

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

ORLSmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ORLBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

SAC2.3 #30

ORL		SAC
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.4 #11	3-point %	30.4 #27
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.3 #16	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
7.0 #26	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Kings

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Kings

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Kings