Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Kings
PHX	This season	SAC
1-3	Record	0-6
0-4	ATS	1-5
3-1	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 120–114 · win probability PHX 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

PHX 5, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

PHXBig

PHX offense vs SAC defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

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Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, SAC 14.6%

PHXSmall

SAC offense vs PHX defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

PHXSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 45.1% and 38.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, SAC 26.4. Allowed: PHX 31.1, SAC 31.2

Even

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: PHX away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ UTAH	W134–109WO
Nov 23	@ NO	W118–116LO
Nov 25	@ HOU	L105–119LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ LAL	L104–128LU
Nov 21	vs BOS	L93–112LU
Nov 23	vs SA	L103–130LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

PHX 12–9 SACPHX leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 4 meetings · PHX 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2025-26	PHX 114 @ SAC 103	SAC +9.5	PHX W
Jan 2, 2025-26	SAC 102 @ PHX 129	PHX -13.5	PHX W
Nov 26, 2025-26	PHX 112 @ SAC 100	SAC +4.5	PHX W
Oct 22, 2025-26	SAC 116 @ PHX 120	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Apr 13, 2024-25	PHX 98 @ SAC 109	SAC -15.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Suns 2, Kings 2, even 1

SunsBetterKings

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

SACSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

PHXBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

SunsBetterKings

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHXSmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

PHXSmall

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

PHXBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

SAC2.3 #30

PHX		SAC
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.0 #16	3-point %	30.4 #27
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
27.5 #8	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.0 #15	Steals per game	8.0 #21
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Kings

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Kings

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Kings