Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Pelicans
PHX	This season	NO
1-3	Record	2-4
0-4	ATS	4-2
3-1	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 118–116 · win probability NO 57%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

PHX 2, NO 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, NO 35.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, NO 30.6

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

NOBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 45.1% and 32.8% of their shots

NOSmall

NO offense vs PHX defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, NO 17.4%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, NO 16.3%

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs NO defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, NO 76.4%

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ HOU	L105–119LO
Nov 27	vs DAL	W112–107LU
Nov 29	@ UTAH	W134–109WO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ LAC	W105–99WU
Nov 29	@ POR	L106–118LU
Nov 30	@ SAC	W132–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

PHX 16–8 NOPHX leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 5 meetings · PHX 15-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	NO 116 @ PHX 118	PHX -3.5	NO W
Dec 27, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ NO 114	NO +4.5	PHX W
Dec 26, 2025-26	PHX 115 @ NO 108	NO +5.5	PHX W
Nov 10, 2025-26	NO 98 @ PHX 121	PHX -7.5	PHX W
Feb 28, 2024-25	NO 108 @ PHX 125	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Pelicans 3, even 1

SunsBetterPelicans

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

Even

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

NOBig

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

NOSmall

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

NOBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

SunsBetterPelicans

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHXSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

NOSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

NO4.8 #16

PHX		NO
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.10 #15
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
35.0 #16	3-point %	31.2 #25
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
27.5 #8	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
9.0 #15	Steals per game	13.7 #1
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Pelicans