Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mavericks and Suns
DAL	This season	PHX
4-2	Record	1-3
4-2	ATS	0-4
2-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 116–115 · win probability DAL 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 5, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

DALBig

Three-pointers

DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 42.1% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, PHX 17.1%

DALBig

Recent form

Last 4: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

DALSmall

DAL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

DALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, PHX 22.8. Allowed: DAL 27.2, PHX 31.1

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

PHX offense vs DAL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, PHX 65.1%

Context

Schedule so far

DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: DAL away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs BOS	L100–120LU
Dec 2	vs ORL	L127–138LO
Dec 14	vs MIL	L99–123LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ UTAH	W134–109WO
Dec 1	vs LAC	L93–117LO
Dec 2	vs SAC	W114–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

DAL 9–15 PHXPHX leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 4 meetings · DAL 13-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 8, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ PHX 112	PHX -12.5	DAL W
Feb 10, 2025-26	DAL 111 @ PHX 120	PHX -8.5	PHX W
Nov 12, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ DAL 114	DAL +1.5	PHX W
Mar 9, 2024-25	PHX 125 @ DAL 116	DAL +6.5	PHX W
Dec 27, 2024-25	DAL 98 @ PHX 89	PHX -0.5	DAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 3, Suns 1, even 1

MavericksBetterSuns

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

DALBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

DALBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

DALSmall

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

MavericksBetterSuns

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

DALSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

DALBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

DALSmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAL betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAL114.3 #14

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

DAL1.12 #11

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

DAL102.8 #18

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAL56.9 #2

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

DAL35.1 #14

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

DAL42.1 #18

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

DAL21.4 #29

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAL16.8 #23

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

DAL27.8 #13

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

DAL27.0 #12

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

DAL111.8 #14

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

DAL1.08 #13

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

DAL51.3 #9

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

DAL29.7 #2

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

DAL14.5 #24

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

DAL69.4 #25

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

DAL8.8 #16

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

DAL6.8 #2

PHX5.3 #10

DAL		PHX
Scoring
114.3 #14	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.12 #11	Points per possession	1.12 #12
102.8 #18	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
56.9 #2	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.1 #14	3-point %	35.0 #16
42.1 #18	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
21.4 #29	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
16.8 #23	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
27.8 #13	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
27.0 #12	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
111.8 #14	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.08 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
51.3 #9	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
29.7 #2	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.5 #24	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
69.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
8.8 #16	Steals per game	9.0 #15
6.8 #2	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks @ Suns

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Mavericks

Suns

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mavericks

Suns