American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 122–111 · win probability DAL 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
MIL 1, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALBigDAL offense vs MIL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
DALBigMIL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
MILBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, DAL 69.4%
DALBigThree-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: MIL 29.7, DAL 27.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, DAL 14.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -11.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 110.5 · DAL 122.3
Win probability
DAL 80%
1st half
Spread
DAL -6.5
Total
116.4
Projected score
MIL 55 · DAL 61.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIL 9–1 DALMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 8 meetings · MIL 7-2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025-26 | DAL 99 @ MIL 123 | MIL +2.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 10, 2025-26 | MIL 116 @ DAL 114 | DAL +3.5 | DAL W |
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | DAL 107 @ MIL 137 | MIL -12.5 | MIL W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | MIL 132 @ DAL 117 | DAL +2.5 | MIL W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | MIL 129 @ DAL 117 | DAL +4.5 | MIL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 0, Mavericks 2, even 3
BucksBetterMavericks
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
=Even
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
=Even
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
→DALSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
=Even
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
BucksBetterMavericks
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
→DALSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→DALBig
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→DALBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→DALBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
→DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21DAL56.9 #23-point %
MIL33.9 #21DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27DAL6.8 #2| MIL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.