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NBA · Sun, Dec 20

Warriors @ Bucks

Fiserv Forum · at Bucks
#13GSWarriors
@
#29MILBucks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonMIL
4-3Record1-5
5-2ATS2-4
4-3O/U5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 121–113 · win probability GS 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
—
model 234.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 7, MIL 1 · 2026-27 so far
GSBig
GS offense vs MIL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
MIL offense vs GS defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: GS 17.6%, MIL 12.2%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
GSSmall
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 47.1% and 45.9% of their shots
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, MIL 23.9. Allowed: GS 27.3, MIL 29.7
GSSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
MILSmall
Home court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, MIL 74.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -7.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.1
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 120.8 · MIL 113.2
Win probability
GS 71%
1st half
Spread
GS -4.4
Total
117.0
Projected score
GS 60.7 · MIL 56.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 4, Bucks 1, even 0
WarriorsBetterBucks
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSBig
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
GSBig
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
MILBig
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
GSBig
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56
WarriorsBetterBucks
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
GSBig
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
GSBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Bucks
Guards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
GSMIL
Scoring
117.7Points per game113.0
1.17Points per possession1.07
101.4Pace (possessions)106.2
Shooting
55.3Effective FG%52.0
40.03-point %33.9
47.13-point attempt rate45.9
28.8Free throw rate23.9
Possessions
16.7Turnover rate15.8
33.2Offensive rebound rate29.7
27.4Assists per game26.0
Defense
114.9Points allowed126.2
1.13Points allowed per possession1.18
56.0Opponent effective FG%55.4
35.2Opponent 3-point %34.9
17.6Turnovers forced12.2
70.4Defensive rebound rate74.2
9.1Steals per game5.7
4.1Blocks per game4.0
GSMIL
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game113.0 #17
1.17 #3Points per possession1.07 #20
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)106.2 #4
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%52.0 #21
40.0 #23-point %33.9 #21
47.1 #53-point attempt rate45.9 #8
28.8 #15Free throw rate23.9 #25
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate15.8 #18
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate29.7 #8
27.4 #10Assists per game26.0 #20
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed126.2 #28
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.18 #28
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%55.4 #24
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %34.9 #14
17.6 #5Turnovers forced12.2 #30
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate74.2 #10
9.1 #11Steals per game5.7 #30
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.0 #27
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Cavaliers111–136
  • Lvs Rockets100–132
  • Wvs Pacers110–102
  • L@ 76ers116–127
  • Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.