Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Celtics
DET	This season	BOS
5-1	Record	5-1
5-1	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 110–107 · win probability BOS 59%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

DET 1, BOS 3 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

BOS offense vs DET defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

DET offense vs BOS defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: DET 17.1%, BOS 17.8%

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, DET 3-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: DET 28.1, BOS 31.7

Even

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 43.3% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DET away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 22	@ OKC	L110–114WO
Dec 23	@ ATL	L129–130LO
Dec 26	@ CHI	W126–110WO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 23	vs POR	W102–94LU
Dec 25	vs MIA	W147–129WO
Dec 28	vs CLE	W109–98WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

DET 6–14 BOSBOS leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 3 meetings · DET 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 20, 2026-27	BOS 113 @ DET 121	DET +1.5	DET W
Jan 19, 2025-26	BOS 103 @ DET 104	DET -2.5	BOS W
Dec 15, 2025-26	DET 112 @ BOS 105	BOS -1.5	DET W
Nov 26, 2025-26	DET 114 @ BOS 117	BOS +1.5	BOS W
Oct 26, 2025-26	BOS 113 @ DET 119	DET -2.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 1, Celtics 2, even 2

PistonsBetterCeltics

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

DETSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

BOSSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

PistonsBetterCeltics

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

BOSSmall

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

BOS4.0 #25

DET		BOS
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.15 #6
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
36.3 #9	3-point %	35.5 #10
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
26.7 #15	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.0 #12	Steals per game	9.2 #9
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Celtics