Paycom Center · at Thunder
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DET | This season | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 109–108 · win probability DET 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 216.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
DET 4, OKC 2 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigOKC offense vs DET defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
OKCBigDET offense vs OKC defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
DETBigThree-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 43.3% and 35.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallShooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0
OKCSmallHome court
OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: DET 28.1, OKC 23.4
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, OKC 71.4%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: DET 17.1%, OKC 15.8%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -0.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model216.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 108.7 · OKC 108
Win probability
DET 52%
1st half
Spread
DET -0.5
Total
108.9
Projected score
DET 54.7 · OKC 54.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DET 4–6 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ OKC 114 | OKC -11.5 | DET W |
| Feb 25, 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ DET 124 | DET -10.5 | OKC W |
| Apr 2, 2024-25 | DET 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC -12.5 | OKC W |
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | OKC 113 @ DET 107 | DET +4.5 | OKC W |
| Jan 28, 2023-24 | OKC 104 @ DET 120 | DET +12.5 | DET W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@
DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@
HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder has the better starters
Position by position: Pistons 2, Thunder 3, even 0
PistonsBetterThunder
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
→OKCBig
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
→OKCSmall
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
←DETBig
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
←DETBig
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
→OKCBig
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
PistonsBetterThunder
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
→OKCBig
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
←DETBig
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
→OKCBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
←DETBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
←DETBig
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DET109.8 #21OKC106.5 #29Points per possession
DET1.09 #18OKC1.05 #23Pace (possessions)
DET100.9 #29OKC101.1 #27Shooting
Effective FG%
DET53.1 #17OKC49.5 #283-point %
DET36.3 #9OKC30.9 #263-point attempt rate
DET43.3 #13OKC35.8 #29Free throw rate
DET28.9 #14OKC21.8 #28Possessions
Turnover rate
DET15.6 #17OKC14.5 #7Offensive rebound rate
DET27.2 #17OKC28.5 #10Assists per game
DET26.7 #15OKC21.7 #29Defense
Points allowed
DET101.8 #1OKC107.0 #5Points allowed per possession
DET1.01 #1OKC1.06 #7Opponent effective FG%
DET48.8 #2OKC51.0 #6Opponent 3-point %
DET32.5 #10OKC35.3 #17Turnovers forced
DET17.1 #6OKC15.8 #13Defensive rebound rate
DET72.8 #15OKC71.4 #18Steals per game
DET9.0 #12OKC8.3 #20Blocks per game
DET6.7 #4OKC6.3 #7| DET | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 109.8 #21 | Points per game | 106.5 #29 |
| 1.09 #18 | Points per possession | 1.05 #23 |
| 100.9 #29 | Pace (possessions) | 101.1 #27 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.1 #17 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #28 |
| 36.3 #9 | 3-point % | 30.9 #26 |
| 43.3 #13 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #29 |
| 28.9 #14 | Free throw rate | 21.8 #28 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.6 #17 | Turnover rate | 14.5 #7 |
| 27.2 #17 | Offensive rebound rate | 28.5 #10 |
| 26.7 #15 | Assists per game | 21.7 #29 |
| Defense | ||
| 101.8 #1 | Points allowed | 107.0 #5 |
| 1.01 #1 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #7 |
| 48.8 #2 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.0 #6 |
| 32.5 #10 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.3 #17 |
| 17.1 #6 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #13 |
| 72.8 #15 | Defensive rebound rate | 71.4 #18 |
| 9.0 #12 | Steals per game | 8.3 #20 |
| 6.7 #4 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #7 |
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.