Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 3:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Rockets
OKC	This season	HOU
4-2	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
1-5	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 114–107 · win probability HOU 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

OKC 2, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 35.8% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

OKC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, HOU 31.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, HOU 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

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Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, HOU 73.2%

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, HOU 15.7%

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, OKC 1-2 away

OKCSmall

HOU offense vs OKC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: OKC away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs MIL	L93–110LU
Dec 31	vs MIA	L120–122LO
Jan 2	vs UTAH	W146–111WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	@ LAL	L78–98LU
Dec 30	@ GS	W117–116LO
Jan 1	vs DAL	L111–116LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

OKC 10–11 HOUHOU leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · OKC 8-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	OKC 98 @ HOU 119	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Feb 7, 2025-26	HOU 112 @ OKC 106	OKC -3.5	HOU W
Jan 15, 2025-26	OKC 111 @ HOU 91	HOU +4.5	OKC W
Oct 21, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ OKC 125	OKC -6.5	HOU W
Apr 4, 2024-25	OKC 111 @ HOU 125	HOU +5.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 1, Rockets 2, even 2

ThunderBetterRockets

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

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F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

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F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

ThunderBetterRockets

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

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Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

HOU5.9 #8

OKC		HOU
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.20 #1
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
30.9 #26	3-point %	39.0 #3
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
21.7 #29	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.7 #6
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Rockets