Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 6-1 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 5-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects HOU 118–109 · win probability HOU 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges
DAL 0, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBigDAL offense vs HOU defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUBigFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, HOU 31.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, HOU 24.7
HOUBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, HOU 73.2%
HOUBigHOU offense vs DAL defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, HOU 15.7%
HOUSmallThree-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmallHome court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -9.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.2
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 109 · HOU 118.2
Win probability
HOU 74%
1st half
Spread
HOU -5.0
Total
113.8
Projected score
DAL 54.4 · HOU 59.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| HOUlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22
DAL 14–8 HOUDAL leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · DAL 13-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026-27 | HOU 111 @ DAL 116 | DAL +5.5 | DAL W |
| Oct 21, 2026-27 | DAL 110 @ HOU 128 | HOU -9.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ HOU 111 | HOU -10.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ DAL 110 | DAL +7.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 6, 2025-26 | HOU 109 @ DAL 122 | DAL +6.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rockets
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vsDAL | W 128-110 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 230.5 | O 238 |
| Oct 23 | @SA | W 114-110 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 224.5 | U 224 |
| Oct 24 | @ ATL | W 121-114 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | vsATL | W 120-110 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIL | W 132-100 | -8.5 | W +23.5 | 226.5 | O 232 |
| Oct 30 | @DAL | L 111-116 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 223.5 | O 227 |
| Oct 31 | vsOKC | W 119-98 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 219.5 | U 217 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
−10.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
+18.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
+3.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
−2.5
over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 0, Rockets 5, even 0
MavericksBetterRockets
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→HOUBig
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 60
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
→HOUSmall
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast
Score 94
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→HOUSmall
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 79
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
→HOUSmall
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 82
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→HOUBig
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast
Score 84
MavericksBetterRockets
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
→HOUBig
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→HOUSmall
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
→HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
RocketsGuards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14HOU120.7 #3Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11HOU1.20 #1Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18HOU101.6 #24Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2HOU56.6 #33-point %
DAL35.1 #14HOU39.0 #33-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18HOU38.1 #26Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29HOU31.9 #8Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23HOU15.1 #13Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13HOU32.4 #3Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12HOU28.1 #5Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14HOU108.3 #7Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13HOU1.06 #8Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9HOU52.1 #10Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2HOU30.2 #4Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24HOU15.7 #16Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25HOU73.2 #14Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16HOU9.7 #6Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2HOU5.9 #8| DAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 120.7 #3 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.20 #1 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 101.6 #24 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 56.6 #3 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 39.0 #3 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.1 #26 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 31.9 #8 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #13 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.4 #3 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 28.1 #5 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 108.3 #7 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #8 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #10 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.2 #4 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #16 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.2 #14 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 9.7 #6 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 5.9 #8 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Rockets
6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Thunder119–98
- L@ Mavericks111–116
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
A week or more of rest.