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NBA · Thu, Jan 7

Trail Blazers @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonDAL
4-1Record4-2
3-2ATS4-2
2-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 116–114 · win probability POR 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 5, DAL 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: POR 27.8, DAL 27.2
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, DAL 69.4%
PORBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: POR 14.8%, DAL 14.5%
PORSmall
POR offense vs DAL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
DAL offense vs POR defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 51.5% and 42.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -1.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.8
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 115.8 · DAL 113.9
Win probability
POR 55%
1st half
Spread
POR -1.2
Total
115.0
Projected score
POR 58.1 · DAL 56.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Mavericks 2, even 0
Trail BlazersBetterMavericks
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
PORSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
DALSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PORSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
Trail BlazersBetterMavericks
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
PORSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
PORSmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
PORBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORDAL
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game114.3 #14
1.16 #5Points per possession1.12 #11
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%56.9 #2
35.3 #123-point %35.1 #14
51.5 #13-point attempt rate42.1 #18
35.9 #3Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate16.8 #23
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
26.2 #17Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed111.8 #14
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
14.8 #20Turnovers forced14.5 #24
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
8.6 #18Steals per game8.8 #16
4.2 #21Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.