Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Raptors
MIN	This season	TOR
4-3	Record	3-3
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 115–112 · win probability MIN 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, TOR 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, TOR 20.8%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

MINSmall

MIN offense vs TOR defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

TOR offense vs MIN defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, TOR 27.7. Allowed: MIN 28.9, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIN away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	@ WSH	W141–115WO
Jan 11	vs CLE	L125–127WO
Jan 14	@ CHI	L115–120LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	vs UTAH	W143–127WO
Jan 10	vs PHI	L102–115LU
Jan 12	vs DET	L116–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

MIN 6–5 TORMIN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings · MIN 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 25, 2026-27	TOR 94 @ MIN 117	MIN -3.5	MIN W
Mar 5, 2025-26	TOR 107 @ MIN 115	MIN -4.5	MIN W
Feb 4, 2025-26	MIN 128 @ TOR 126	TOR +2.5	TOR W
Nov 21, 2024-25	MIN 105 @ TOR 110	TOR +6.5	TOR W
Oct 26, 2024-25	TOR 101 @ MIN 112	MIN -14.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Raptors 0, even 2

TimberwolvesBetterRaptors

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TimberwolvesBetterRaptors

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

TORSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

TOR4.3 #19

MIN		TOR
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.11 #13
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
37.6 #6	3-point %	32.0 #24
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
27.3 #11	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.0 #13	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Raptors

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Raptors

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Raptors