Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 8, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Wizards
MIN	This season	WSH
4-3	Record	3-3
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 121–110 · win probability MIN 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, WSH 68.0%

MINBig

MIN offense vs WSH defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

WSH offense vs MIN defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, WSH 34.2. Allowed: MIN 28.9, WSH 21.8

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 37.6% of their shots

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIN away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	vs CLE	L125–127WO
Jan 14	@ CHI	L115–120LU
Jan 16	@ PHI	L103–115LU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	vs ATL	L96–126LU
Jan 12	@ PHI	L131–153LO
Jan 15	@ HOU	L118–123WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 5–5 WSHSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 4, 2025-26	MIN 141 @ WSH 115	WSH +10.5	MIN W
Nov 19, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ MIN 120	MIN -16.5	WSH W
Feb 1, 2024-25	WSH 105 @ MIN 103	MIN -11.5	WSH W
Jan 13, 2024-25	MIN 120 @ WSH 106	WSH +14.5	WSH W
Apr 9, 2023-24	WSH 121 @ MIN 130	MIN -18.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Wizards 0, even 2

TimberwolvesBetterWizards

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINSmall

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

TimberwolvesBetterWizards

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

WSH5.3 #9

MIN		WSH
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.08 #19
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
37.6 #6	3-point %	29.3 #29
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
27.3 #11	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.0 #13	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Wizards

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Wizards

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Wizards