Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 8:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and 76ers
WSH	This season	PHI
3-3	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 116–109 · win probability PHI 70%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

WSH 2, PHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

WSH offense vs PHI defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, PHI 17.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, PHI 28.7. Allowed: WSH 21.8, PHI 28.5

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, PHI 70.8%

Even

PHI offense vs WSH defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 37.6% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	@ HOU	L118–123WO
Jan 17	vs IND	W131–118WO
Jan 18	vs BOS	L100–111WU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs BKN	W104–97LU
Jan 16	vs MIN	W115–103WU
Jan 18	@ ATL	L116–125LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

WSH 5–13 PHIPHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · WSH 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	PHI 153 @ WSH 131	WSH +14.5	PHI W
Jan 7, 2025-26	WSH 110 @ PHI 131	PHI -16.5	PHI W
Dec 2, 2025-26	WSH 102 @ PHI 121	PHI -13.5	PHI W
Oct 28, 2025-26	PHI 139 @ WSH 134	WSH +4.5	PHI W
Apr 9, 2024-25	PHI 122 @ WSH 103	WSH +2.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, 76ers 3, even 2

WizardsBetter76ers

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

PHISmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

WizardsBetter76ers

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

Even

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

PHISmall

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

PHI5.0 #14

WSH		PHI
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.06 #22
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
29.3 #29	3-point %	34.0 #20
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
24.5 #24	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

76ers