Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 17, 1:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Wizards
IND	This season	WSH
2-5	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
3-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 118–114 · win probability WSH 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

IND 1, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, WSH 34.2. Allowed: IND 32.1, WSH 21.8

INDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, WSH 68.0%

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: IND 14.9%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

IND offense vs WSH defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

WSH offense vs IND defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: IND away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	@ PHI	L109–114WU
Jan 20	@ BOS	L104–119LU
Jan 22	@ DET	L121–133WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	vs BOS	L100–111WU
Jan 21	@ DEN	L97–107LU
Jan 22	@ LAC	L106–110WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

IND 11–8 WSHIND leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · WSH has won the last 3 meetings · IND 7-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 20, 2025-26	IND 118 @ WSH 131	WSH -1.5	WSH W
Feb 19, 2025-26	IND 105 @ WSH 112	WSH +2.5	WSH W
Dec 14, 2025-26	WSH 108 @ IND 89	IND -10.5	WSH W
Nov 28, 2025-26	WSH 86 @ IND 119	IND -6.5	IND W
Apr 8, 2024-25	WSH 98 @ IND 104	IND -18.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Wizards 1, even 1

PacersBetterWizards

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

WSHSmall

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

PacersBetterWizards

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

WSH5.3 #9

IND		WSH
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.08 #19
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
34.1 #18	3-point %	29.3 #29
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
28.0 #7	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
6.9 #27	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Wizards

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Wizards