Washington Wizards at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Clippers
WSH	This season	LAC
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 117–110 · win probability LAC 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WSH 3, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

WSH offense vs LAC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

LACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, LAC 70.9%

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, LAC 28.0. Allowed: WSH 21.8, LAC 24.7

WSHSmall

LAC offense vs WSH defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, LAC 17.0%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 37.6% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ LAL	L101–120LU
Jan 26	@ POR	L88–123LU
Jan 28	vs SAC	W116–112WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	@ NY	W126–118WO
Jan 25	@ PHI	L113–128LO
Jan 27	@ BOS	L115–146LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 0–10 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 10 meetings · WSH 1-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 19, 2025-26	LAC 110 @ WSH 106	WSH +6.5	WSH W
Jan 14, 2025-26	WSH 105 @ LAC 119	LAC -11.5	LAC W
Jan 23, 2024-25	WSH 93 @ LAC 110	LAC -14.5	LAC W
Nov 27, 2024-25	LAC 121 @ WSH 96	WSH +9.5	LAC W
Mar 1, 2023-24	WSH 115 @ LAC 140	LAC -16.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Clippers 2, even 2

WizardsBetterClippers

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

Even

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

LACSmall

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

WizardsBetterClippers

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

WSHSmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

LACBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

LAC4.2 #22

WSH		LAC
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.04 #27
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
29.3 #29	3-point %	38.6 #5
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
24.5 #24	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
7.2 #24	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Clippers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Clippers