Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 22, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Lakers
SAC	This season	LAL
0-6	Record	5-2
1-5	ATS	4-3
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 127–111 · win probability LAL 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

SAC 1, LAL 8 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 38.0% and 45.7% of their shots

LALBig

SAC offense vs LAL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, LAL 37.2. Allowed: SAC 31.2, LAL 30.7

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, LAL 67.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 25	@ DEN	L105–136LO
Jan 27	@ PHI	L118–139LO
Jan 28	@ WSH	L112–116LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 24	vs WSH	W120–101WU
Jan 26	vs OKC	L110–115WO
Jan 28	@ IND	W137–130LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

SAC 10–10 LALSeries tied · 20 games since 2021-22 · SAC 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2025-26	SAC 104 @ LAL 128	LAL -12.5	LAL W
Jan 12, 2025-26	LAL 112 @ SAC 124	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Dec 28, 2025-26	SAC 101 @ LAL 125	LAL -12.5	LAL W
Oct 26, 2025-26	LAL 127 @ SAC 120	SAC -2.5	LAL W
Dec 28, 2024-25	SAC 122 @ LAL 132	LAL +3.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Lakers 4, even 1

KingsBetterLakers

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

Even

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

LALBig

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

LALSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

KingsBetterLakers

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

LALBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

LAL6.7 #3

SAC		LAL
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.18 #2
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
30.4 #27	3-point %	38.9 #4
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
24.5 #23	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
8.0 #21	Steals per game	10.4 #4
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Lakers