Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 9:30 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Nuggets
SAC	This season	DEN
0-6	Record	3-2
1-5	ATS	2-3
5-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 126–111 · win probability DEN 86%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

SAC 0, DEN 7 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs SAC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 38.0% and 40.9% of their shots

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, DEN 31.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, DEN 21.5

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

SAC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ PHI	L118–139LO
Jan 28	@ WSH	L112–116LO
Jan 31	@ DET	L116–139LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ MIN	L98–110
Jan 30	@ OKC	L84–96LU
Jan 31	vs POR	W137–132LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

SAC 5–14 DENDEN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · SAC 8-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 11, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ SAC 105	SAC +10.5	DEN W
Nov 22, 2025-26	SAC 128 @ DEN 123	DEN -11.5	SAC W
Nov 11, 2025-26	DEN 122 @ SAC 108	SAC +8.5	DEN W
Nov 3, 2025-26	SAC 124 @ DEN 130	DEN -11.5	SAC W
Apr 9, 2024-25	DEN 124 @ SAC 116	SAC +4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Nuggets 5, even 0

KingsBetterNuggets

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

DENBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

KingsBetterNuggets

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

DEN4.4 #18

SAC		DEN
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.13 #9
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
30.4 #27	3-point %	37.4 #7
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
8.0 #21	Steals per game	10.2 #5
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Nuggets